Will RBI rate hikes intensify selloff in bank stocks? Analysts explain why fears may be overdone

Bank stocks have recorded sharp losses of late as investors prices in a possible RBI rate hike at the upcoming MPC meeting. Analysts, however, believe the fears may be overdone and see the current downturn as an opportunity to accumulate quality stocks in the sector.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is all set to hold its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting next week from October 5 to October 7. This would mark the Indian central bank's first meeting after the US Federal Reserve increased rates earlier this month. The Fed's latest rate hike marked its first since 2023, as soaring oil prices and other uncertainties kept inflation well above its long-term target and ended a prolonged period of policy stability.

While markets are pricing in steep rate hikes of 125 basis points by RBI in the next one year, Nomura suggested that this cycle is fundamentally different and expects policy fine-tuning instead, with the international brokerage seeing a higher chance of a cumulative 50 bps rate hike.


Also read | Will RBI announce steep rate hikes? Nomura sees up to 50 bps increase by Dec, dismisses 125 bps hike fears

While rate hikes have a multipronged impact on the overall market and different sectors, banks are typically seen as the first to be affected. As a result, bank stocks plunged, with Nifty Bank losing nearly 1,800 points to briefly fall below 54,000 on Tuesday, marking the first time since early June.

Repo rate is simply the rate at which RBI gives short-term loans to banks, hence a rate increase by the RBI increases cost of funds for the lenders. Generally, repo rate hikes lead to an initial increase in NIMs because of the lead-lag effect in the repricing of advances versus deposits, Siddharth Rajpurohit, Lead Analyst of Banking at Systematix Group pointed out.

RBI rate hike to be beneficial for private sector banks

In its upcoming MPC meeting scheduled for next week, RBI is widely expected to hike interest rates by 25 basis points to reign in rising inflation. An interest rate hike would be beneficial for the private sector banks as less than 50% of loans are external benchmark linked loans, which would reprice quicker than deposits, said Sunny Agrawal, Head of Fundamental Research at SBI Securities.

"Asset-quality remains stable across the banking sector with residual stress in the unsecured segments abating. However, management commentary on asset quality trends in Q2 FY27 and quarters ahead will be keenly watched," the fundamental analyst explained.

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Opportunity to buy bank stocks?

The sharp downturn in bank stocks ahead of the upcoming RBI MPC meeting is due to near-term margin pressure rather than structural asset-quality stress, said Aamar Deo Singh, Head of Research at Angel One.

With crude volatility and FX depreciation raising inflation concerns, the central bank is unlikely to offer rate cuts, keeping the cost of funds elevated, the analyst said. Consequently, net interest margins (NIMs) may stay range-bound over Q2 FY27. However, sharp price corrections present a disciplined accumulation opportunity, he added.

“We recommend a selective, phased buying strategy prioritizing tier-1 private sector banks and well-capitalized large public lenders with strong low-cost CASA deposit franchises and robust liquidity buffers, while avoiding mid-tier banks reliant on high-cost wholesale funding,” Singh said.

Advances growth remains strong, driven by a pick-up in demand from large industries and steady growth in MSMEs, while liquidity should remain healthy going forward, given strong inflows of FCNR(B) deposits, Rajpurohit from Systematix Group said. “Forward valuations are also below their long-term averages. Hence, we continue to hold a positive view on the banking sector,” he added.

FCNR(B) flows to boost banks' earnings

Recently, the foreign currency non-resident (bank) or FCNR(B) scheme closed in August with a bumper accretion of more than $127 billion. International brokerage Jefferies said small private banks and NBFCs will benefit more while noting that the overall banking sector may see an earnings boost to the tune of Rs 10,000-11,000 crore.

Net interest margins (NIM) for banks will likely fall in the second quarter due to a timing gap in the placement of banks' fund-raising, Jefferies said in its report. It added that banks are likely to quantify the short-term non-recurring impact on NIMs in their earnings print for Q2. Structurally, FCNR-B is a lower NIM business due to the double-counting of deposits and assets, and the first leg makes a 10-15 bps spread, the analysts added.

While FCNR-B deposits dilute NIMs and return on assets (ROA), they are accretive to net interest income (NII) and return on equity (ROE), Jefferies said. In fact, it estimates that at the sector level, it may boost earnings by Rs 10,000-11,000 crore, annually, which is 2% of PBT. “We feel it's better to see from the lens of an incremental profit pool, instead of margins. We feel banks may be able to normalise margins over 2-4 quarters by reducing dependence on high cost wholesale deposits, reducing share G-Secs that is held towards LCR and lowering the share of low-margin overseas trade financing.

Also read | Bumper FCNR(B) inflows may dilute banks' margins but boost earnings by up to Rs 11,000 crore: Jefferies

Disclaimer: This article has been written by Debaroti Adhikary, who is not a SEBI-registered Research Analyst or an Investment Adviser. Debaroti Adhikary and his/her ‘relative(s)’ (as defined under Section 2(77) of the Companies Act, 2013) do not hold any financial interest in the companies mentioned in this article as of the date of publication. The views/recommendations mentioned in this article, wherever applicable, are those of the respective SEBI-registered Research Analyst/brokerage and have been reproduced/reported with due attribution. They should not be construed as the views or recommendations of The Economic Times Digital or the journalist. Readers are advised to consider the original research report and make their investment decisions based on their own assessment. Brokerage disclaimers here.