Sensex, Nifty rise marginally amid global gains; volatility looms on trade deal deadline

Tracking gains in global markets, Indian benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty opened marginally higher on Friday, even as uncertainty loomed over U.S. President Donald Trump's upcoming trade deal deadline next week.

At the same time, market sentiment may remain volatile as investors react to SEBI’s decision to bar U.S.-based trading firm Jane Street from the Indian securities market over alleged manipulation.

At 9:19 am, the BSE Sensex was up 53 points, or 0.06%, at 83,291, while the Nifty50 gained 10 points, or 0.04%, to trade at 25,415.


From the Sensex pack, Bajaj Finance, BEL, Bajaj Finserv, HUL, and HDFC Bank opened higher, rising up to 2.2%, while Trent, Tech Mahindra, Tata Steel, and M&M saw declines.

Bajaj Finance led the gains after reporting a 25% YoY rise in AUM to Rs 4.41 lakh crore in Q1FY26. New loan bookings rose 23% to 13.49 million, and deposits grew 15% to Rs 72,100 crore.

Twelve of the 13 major sectoral indices opened in the green, though gains were marginal. Broader markets, including small- and mid-cap indices, traded flat.

Meanwhile, SEBI issued an interim order against U.S.-based Jane Street over alleged manipulation in equity derivatives.

SEBI's action comes as several global trading firms, including Citadel Securities, IMC Trading, Millennium, and Optiver, ramp up their presence in India's fast-growing derivatives market.

Meanwhile, investors are closely watching for a potential trade deal between India and the U.S. ahead of President Donald Trump’s July 9 deadline for imposing reciprocal tariffs.

Experts View
"There are no triggers to break the 25,200-25,800 Nifty range immediately. Even while trading within this range the market is resilient. This resilience is supported externally by the strength of the mother market US where S&P 500 and Nasdaq are at record highs and domestically by the strong and sustained flows into the market, which has made DIIs sustained buyers in the market," said Dr. VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments.

"The cap to the upside of the range is put by the tepid earnings growth and expectations of modest earnings growth in FY26. Investors should watch for possible changes in the earnings growth trajectory, the indications of which will be available in the Q1 results, which will start coming soon," Vijayakumar added.

Devarsh Vakil, Head of Prime Research, HDFC Securities, said, "The Nifty has been in a correction phase over the last four trading sessions. Previous swing highs of 25,317 and 25,222 could act as support in the Nifty. On the higher side, a level of 25600 could offer resistance to the index."

Global Markets
Most Asian equity markets struggled on Friday, despite record highs for Wall Street overnight, as U.S. President Donald Trump's deadline for trade deals loomed next week.

Japan's Nikkei rose 0.3% as of 0152 GMT after flipping between gains and losses in early trading.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng slumped 0.7%, while China's Shanghai Composite rose 0.4%. Taiwan's equity benchmark shed early gains to decline 0.2%.

U.S. S&P 500 futures edged down 0.2%, following a 0.8% overnight advance for the cash index to a fresh all-time closing peak. Wall Street is closed Friday for Independence Day.

FII/DII Tracker
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) extended their selling streak for the fourth consecutive day, offloading equities worth Rs 1,481 crore on July 3. In contrast, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) continued their buying activity, purchasing equities worth Rs 1,333 crore on the same day.

Crude Oil
Oil prices were little changed on Friday as a solid job market bolstered the case for the U.S. Federal Reserve keeping interest rates on hold, with investors also awaiting clarity on President Donald Trump's plans for tariffs on various countries.

Brent crude futures rose 1 cent, or 0.01%, to $68.81 a barrel by 0036 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude firmed 3 cents, or 0.04%, to $67.03. Trade was thinned by the U.S. Independence Day holiday.

Rupee vs Dollar
The Indian rupee rose 19 paise to 85.36 against the US dollar in early trade. The dollar index, which tracks the movement of the greenback against a basket of six major world currencies, declined 0.21% to 96.97 level.

(With inputs from agencies)