RBI hikes repo rate by 25 bps: How are rate sensitive stocks, sectors faring after first increase in nearly 4 years?

Banking and other interest-rate-sensitive sectors, including NBFCs, realty and automobiles, came under sharp selling pressure on Wednesday after the Reserve Bank of India raised the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50% and shifted its policy stance to ‘calibrated tightening’. This marked the first rate hike in nearly 4 years.

The Nifty Auto index declined more than 1% in the session, with major constituents including Maruti Suzuki, Tata Motors PV, M&M and Hyundai falling over 1% each. The Nifty Bank index slipped nearly 1%, down 0.70%.

The Nifty Metal index also dropped more than 1%, with Tata Steel, Hindalco, Nalco and Vedanta among the major stocks falling up to 3% following the RBI's decision. The PSU Bank index and Nifty FMCG index also declined by up to 1%.

What did RBI governor say?

The RBI Governor said the re-escalation of the West Asia conflict has weighed on global economic sentiment, while the inflation outlook is less benign than it was last year. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) said recalibrating the policy rate is imperative, with four members voting in favour of a calibrated tightening stance. The MPC also indicated that rate cuts are off the table in the near term.

The MPC noted that strong GDP growth and high credit growth pose risks of demand-side pressure on CPI inflation, although there is limited evidence of such pressure so far. It also observed some signs of generalised inflation and said it is difficult to distinguish supply-side inflation from the second-order effects of price shocks. The committee added that the second-round impact of supply shocks needs to be taken into account.

RBI rate hike market impact

The Indian stock market slipped into the red on Wednesday after a two-day relief rally, with Sensex and Nifty dropping up to 0.7% after RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra announced the central bank’s first rate hike in four years and changed stance to ‘calibrated tightening’.

Sensex dropped more than 540 points to 72,520 while Nifty 50 lost 176 points to fall below 22,580 on Wednesday morning after Sanjay Malhotra’s announcement, dismissing near-term rate cuts. Broader markets were mixed, with Nifty Midcap 100 in the red and Nifty Smallcap 100 in the green.

The rate hike comes as domestic inflation remains above the RBI's 4% target, while elevated crude oil prices add another external risk. Higher crude prices could put further pressure on India's inflation trajectory and widen the current account deficit.

The policy rate decision comes at a time when Nifty and Sensex have declined for 8 consecutive weeks, their longest losing streak in 25 years.

The weakness in equities is not primarily a reflection of deteriorating domestic activity. Instead, investors are grappling with a mix of higher crude oil prices, rising global bond yields, currency risks and continued foreign selling.

The seven-month-old Iran war has pushed crude prices and bond yields higher, bringing inflation and interest rate concerns back into focus. With the US 10-year yield above 5%, global investors have a greater incentive to allocate money to relatively safer assets while demanding higher returns from riskier markets such as equities.

Foreign outflows have added to the pressure. FIIs have remained net sellers for seven consecutive weeks, while the Nifty declined 3.1% last week. Domestic investors have absorbed a significant portion of the selling, but foreign capital remains heavily concentrated in largecap stocks, which have a greater influence on the benchmark index.

Disclaimer: This article has been written by Veer Sharma, who is not a SEBI-registered Research Analyst or an Investment Adviser. Veer Sharma and his ‘relative(s)’ (as defined under Section 2(77) of the Companies Act, 2013) do not hold any financial interest in the companies mentioned in this article as of the date of publication. The views/recommendations mentioned in this article, wherever applicable, are those of the respective SEBI-registered Research Analyst/brokerage and have been reproduced/reported with due attribution. They should not be construed as the views or recommendations of The Economic Times Digital or the journalist. Readers are advised to consider the original research report and make their investment decisions based on their own assessment. Brokerage disclaimershere.