India’s 10-year bond yield hits 3-year high as RBI’s liquidity measure weighs on demand

Indian government bonds extended their sell-off on Monday, with the benchmark 10-year yield climbing to a three-year high, as the Reserve Bank of India’s latest liquidity-tightening measures added to pressure on the debt market.

When the banking system has abundant surplus cash, banks have more room to invest in government securities. When liquidity tightens, that capacity can shrink. If demand for bonds weakens, their prices fall and yields rise.

The yield on the benchmark 6.94% 2036 bond rose to 7.3707%, its highest level in three years, from 7.2994% on Friday. Yields have climbed for eight consecutive weeks, rising 54 basis points over the period.


The RBI will sell Rs 25,000 crore of government bonds on Tuesday and require banks to maintain 99% of their daily cash reserve requirement from October 16, up from the current 90%. These measures come just days after the central bank raised its key policy rate for the first time in nearly four years and signalled the possibility of further hikes.

The latest steps have also raised questions over the RBI’s policy approach. At its recent policy meeting, the central bank had announced no measures to absorb excess liquidity, with Governor Sanjay Malhotra saying the surge in surplus cash would be temporary.

RBI’s Rupee measure

The Indian rupee surged nearly Rs 1 against the US dollar on Monday after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) introduced measures to curb two key sources of pressure on the currency: oil companies’ spot-market dollar demand and corporate bets on further depreciation.

The rupee opened at 95.76 against the dollar, gaining 97 paise from Friday’s close of 96.73. It emerged as the strongest-performing Asian currency, while most regional peers traded in a narrow range.

The rally followed a package of four measures announced over the weekend. These included a dedicated dollar supply window for three state-run oil marketing companies, tighter restrictions on foreign exchange derivatives, a 20% cash reserve requirement for certain currency contracts and stricter daily cash reserve requirements for banks.

The measures have provided the rupee with an immediate, policy-driven reprieve. However, the currency remains down 6.6% this year, with elevated crude oil prices, foreign institutional investor (FII) outflows and weak capital flows continuing to weigh on it.

Elevated oil prices remain another concern for the debt market. Brent crude continued to trade above $100 a barrel, raising concerns over India's inflation outlook and government finances given the country's dependence on oil imports. Investors are also awaiting India's September retail inflation data, due later on Monday. A Reuters poll projects retail inflation at 5.4% year-on-year.

Indian stock market today

The Indian stock market slipped into the red on Monday, with Sensex and Nifty erasing all early gains to fall up to 0.7% as concerns outweighed optimism amid headwinds like persistent FII selling, soaring bond yields and other factors.

Sensex dropped more than 574 points to drop below 71,900 while Nifty 50 lost nearly 150 points to 22,370. This came while India VIX, which measures volatility in the market, jumped more than 7% to cross 15.

Disclaimer: This article has been written by Veer Sharma, who is not a SEBI-registered Research Analyst or an Investment Adviser. Veer Sharma and his/her ‘relative(s)’ (as defined under Section 2(77) of the Companies Act, 2013) do not hold any financial interest in the companies mentioned in this article as of the date of publication. The views/recommendations mentioned in this article, wherever applicable, are those of the respective SEBI-registered Research Analyst/brokerage and have been reproduced/reported with due attribution. They should not be construed as the views or recommendations of The Economic Times Digital or the journalist. Readers are advised to consider the original research report and make their investment decisions based on their own assessment. Brokerage disclaimers here.