High-Flying PE-rich stocks may not be worth your time

Desperate fund managers trying out NAV management and investors piling into just any story about growth with little regard for sober investing.

High-Flying PE-rich stocks may not be worth your time
It is tempting to buy high-fl ying multinational or domestic stocks at sky-high valuations. They have good fi nancial and dividend track record and the strong global linkages guarantee good export volumes insulating them from domestic slowdown fears. But the fact that they have been rising continuously despite super-rich valuations could also mean something else.

Desperate fund managers trying out NAV management and investors piling into just any story about growth with little regard for sober investing. Shares of Jubilant FoodWorks, Bosch, Honeywell Automation, GSK Pharma and others have risen up to 26% in past two months. These stocks already command a price-to-earnings multiple of 40-50 times. What’s more, the rise has been accompanied by extremely average trading volumes (see table). One reason for the surge could be an attempt to play the delisting theme though no announcements have been made as yet. Investors holding these shares or wanting to buy may need to be a bit careful.

Five stocks to invest in now
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Text: Sanket Dhanorkar, ET Bureau

For the past few years, India Inc has seen its earnings profile deteriorate amid a weak demand environment.

In line with the decline in profitability, the return ratios of the stocks have also taken a beating. As pointed out by Credit Suisse, the companies’ return on equity—which measures the degree of efficiency in utilising shareholder’s funds— has halved to a paltry 12.3% in 2015 from a healthy 23.4% in 2005.

Although RoEs have fallen in all major markets over the past few years, the contraction in India has been among the most severe. However, a handful of companies have bucked the trend to report a steady expansion in RoE over the past five years.

Here is a closer look at the five stocks which stand out among their peers.
Text: Sanket Dhanorkar, ET Bureau For the past few years, India Inc has seen its earnings profile deteriorate amid a weak demand environment. In line with the decline in profitability, the return r..
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Sliding global rubber prices since early 2011 has boosted operating performance of the company, leading to improved RoE.

Natural rubber prices have been muted due to weakness in crude oil price, a slowdown in automobile demand in China and oversupply of inventory.

As the largest tyre manufacture in the country with a diversified product mix and superior product quality, MRF is well positioned to benefit from expected improvement in both the OEM segment and replacement demand.

While a surge in import of cheaper Chinese tyres threatens its marketshare in the replacement segment, strong OEM sales over the past year is expected to lead to recovery in the replacement cycle.

Tushar Pendharkar, Equity Strategist at Right Horizons, says, “Positive business outlook, incumbent position in tyre industry, uptick in Indian automobile segment and strong financials justifies current multiples.”
Sliding global rubber prices since early 2011 has boosted operating performance of the company, leading to improved RoE.

Natural rubber prices have been muted due to weakness in crude oil pri..
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The country’s largest private shipping house has been reporting stable numbers despite uncertainty in the industry because of timely purchase and sale of vessels, balanced fleet composition and modest borrowing compared to aggressive peers.

Its presence in the high margin offshore segment will provide it revenue visibility going ahead, reducing volatility in revenues and cushioning its earnings.

Its low leverage will also enable it to expand its fleet at the right time to maintain growth. The firm recently took delivery of a medium range product tanker and is considering intake of three dry bulk carriers by 2018, which will take its total fleet size to 35.

Bharat Chhoda, Analyst at ICICI Direct, says, “We believe GE Shipping would continue its consistent performance on the back of a diversified fleet profile.”
The country’s largest private shipping house has been reporting stable numbers despite uncertainty in the industry because of timely purchase and sale of vessels, balanced fleet composition and modes..
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A diversified portfolio and wide geographical presence has helped UPL maintain healthy numbers despite muted agri-commodity prices, unfavourable weather conditions and volatile currencies.

The shift in product mix towards branded, higher manufacturing efficiency and lower input cost led by lower crude price has helped the firm’s gross margin expand.

Analysts remain positive on its long terms prospects. Satish Mishra, Analyst, HDFC Securities, says, “The focus on branding, new launches, consolidation and increasing innovation turnover index from 5% to 15% in the next three years will lead to further rerating in the stock.”
A diversified portfolio and wide geographical presence has helped UPL maintain healthy numbers despite muted agri-commodity prices, unfavourable weather conditions and volatile currencies.

Th..
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The overhang of the Volkswagen emissions scandal stills weighs on the stock, given that the troubled automaker accounts for more than 40% of its revenues.

The stock price has tanked by 37% since August last year, even as the management strives to reduce concentration risk.

A weak demand scenario and unfavourable currency movements have also hurt. However, analysts are positive on the business from the long-term perspective.

Its European subsidiaries are expected to continue driving topline growth and margin expansion, while seven new plants to be commissioned provide healthy revenue visibility. Nishit Zota, Analyst, ICICI Direct, says, “With MSL’s competence in turning around businesses evident from the success of its European subsidiaries, the management’s focus on RoCE augurs well.”
The overhang of the Volkswagen emissions scandal stills weighs on the stock, given that the troubled automaker accounts for more than 40% of its revenues.

The stock price has tanked by 37% si..
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The consolidation in the telecom space is expected to benefit India’s largest tower player in the long-term as inefficient players get weeded out, leaving more room for efficient telcos.

Strong growth in data volumes is expected to fuel tenancies on the company’s network, boosting rentals. However, margin expansion could remain muted due to higher tower requirement in cities which command a higher rental expense.

Viju K George, Analyst, JP Morgan, says, “There is potential for modest multiple expansion from the current level.”
The consolidation in the telecom space is expected to benefit India’s largest tower player in the long-term as inefficient players get weeded out, leaving more room for efficient telcos.

Stro..
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