Can Sensex, Nifty extend gains on Monday? Oil prices, 5 factors to guide Dalal Street this week

Benchmark indices Nifty and Sensex are likely to open on a strong note on Monday, extending gains for a second straight session, after GIFT Nifty surged more than 250 points on Saturday.

Markets had already ended the previous week over 2% higher on Friday, as bulls continued to recoup March losses amid improving sentiment. Hopes of an earlier-than-expected resolution to the Iran–US conflict, along with other supportive factors, have helped drive the ongoing recovery after the sharp selloff seen in March.

Here are 6 factors that will drive Indian stock market next week:

Iran war ending soon?

The optimism among investors amid rising expectations of the raging war between Iran and US ending soon. A 10-day ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel took effect, and US President Donald Trump said that officials from Washington and Tehran may meet for talks on the weekend.

Additionally, Trump said that Iran has agreed not to possess nuclear weapons for more than 20 years, addressing a major sticking point that has been acting as a major obstacle to earlier attempts to establish peace in the region.

Oil well below $100: In a significant relief for global economies and financial markets, Iran announced that the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most critical oil transit route, is now “completely open” to all commercial vessels and will remain so for the duration of the ceasefire. The development comes as U.S. President Donald Trump said an agreement to end the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran was “very close”.

Brent crude futures dropped $9.01, or 9.07%, to settle at $90.38 a barrel, after touching an intraday low of $86.09. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell $10.48, or 11.45%, to close at $83.85 a barrel, after slipping to a session low of $80.56.

Major Q4 earnings: HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank and Yes Bank declared their March quarter earnings on Saturday. HDFC Bank, India’s leading private lender, reported a net profit of Rs 19,221 crore in the March quarter, marking an increase of 9% from Rs 17,616 crore reported in the corresponding quarter of the previous financial year.

ICICI Bank, one of India’s leading private lenders, on Saturday reported a net profit of Rs 13,702 crore in the fourth quarter of FY26, marking an increase of 8.5% year-on-year from Rs 12,630 crore reported in the same quarter last year.

Private Lender Yes Bank reported a strong performance in its Q4 results, with net profit rising 44.8% year-on-year to Rs 1,068.4 crore, compared to Rs 738 crore in the same period last year.

Rupee strength: Indian rupee extended gains against the US dollar. The Indian currency gained 0.3% to close at 92.9250, after touching a one-week high of 92.66 in early trading. After hitting a record low of 95.21 per dollar on March 30, the rupee has recovered as RBI tapped crisis-era ⁠tools ⁠to shore up the currency which had been battered by foreign portfolio outflows and risks to India's current account balance during the raging war in the Middle East.

Immediate support lies near Rs 92.28, with a stronger base at Rs 91.91 — a break below which could bring the trendline structure into question and expose the Rs 91.05 zone. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs 93.50–Rs 93.68, with a stronger supply cluster near Rs 94 expected to cap any Dollar recovery. The near-term bias remains constructive supported by easing geopolitical headwinds, experts warn.

Charts show promise: Nifty 50 is currently in a recovery phase, consolidating within the 24,100–24,400 range, reflecting improving sentiment along with a gradual pickup in momentum. Immediate resistance is placed near the 24,400 zone, and a sustained breakout above this level could extend the rally towards the 24,800–25,000 range. On the downside, immediate support is seen near the 24,000 level, followed by a stronger base around 23,800, which continues to act as a key demand zone. Momentum indicators are improving, with RSI trending higher near the 57 mark; however, confirmation of a sustained uptrend will require a decisive breakout above resistance levels, Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money said.

FII buys for 3 straight days: Foreign investors remained net buyers of India equities for the third consecutive session on Friday, net purchasing shares worth Rs 683 crore during an extremely volatile session. FII have overall bought Indian equities worth more than Rs 1,500 crore during the three days between April 15-17.

Looking ahead, institutional activity is expected to be driven by a mix of global and domestic factors, with developments in US–Iran negotiations remaining a key monitorable due to their potential impact on geopolitical stability and global energy markets—any progress or setbacks could trigger volatility in crude oil prices. Additionally, the trajectory of quarterly corporate earnings will play a crucial role in shaping investor sentiment, sectoral allocation, and the broader direction of equity markets in the near term.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)