Budget & Sensex: FM may still thrill investors no matter what VIX says

NEW DELHI: At 13.5, the fear gauge India VIX might be at its lowest level going into the Budget Day, but the event still has the potential to thrill investors and how!

History suggests last 10 full Budgets, and the three interim ones, saw Sensex swing in a range of 600 points, on an average, on B-Days.

Earlier this year on February 1, Sensex swung in a 567-point range, before ending the day 0.59 per cent after the Interim Budget was unveiled. The day saw Nifty come closer to the 11,000 mark, only to end at sub-10,900 level.


Last year, when Arun Jaitley presented his last Budget (Piyush Goyal was made FM for interim Budget this year), the day saw Sensex gyrate in a 755-point range before settling 0.16 per cent lower. Nifty managed to hold the 11,000 level that day.

In 2015, 2016 and 2017, Sensex swung 678 points, 849 points and 569 points, respectively. A wide range of 803 points on Sensex was observed on July 10, 2014, the year Modi government tabled its first maiden Budget.

Return-wise, the best return for Sensex on a Budget Day was in 2017, when it jumped 1.76 per cent. Among its worst losses on Budget days, the Sensex tanked 5.83 per cent in response to the full Budget of 2009. During the day, the index swung 1,138 points!


Edelweiss Securities said the market seems to have stamped this as a non-event for stocks.

The prevailing valuations are building in reasonable expectations from the government in terms of delivering a pro-growth Budget that would have a positive impact on aggregate demand while not stretching fiscal prudence too far, said ICICI Securities in a note. " Any disappointment on this front could be a dampener for stocks in the near term,” it said.

India VIX, which signals volatility in Nifty for the following 30 days, has plunged between 5 to 17 percentage points on Budget days. It fell 17 per cent in 2017, 13.3 per cent in 2015, 11.4 per cent in 2018 and 10.5 per cent in 2011.

Edelweiss said implied volatility does inch up by 3-4 percentage points before the Budgets and eventually drop on the B-day.

So far, Nifty50 has been lackluster since last month with a narrow range of 400 points and struggling to find direction as it has been held up by top 10-15 names.