Tata Motors Q1 Preview: PAT likely to drop 36% YoY, hurt by JLR and domestic headwinds
Tata Motors is expected to report weak Q1FY26 results, with a sharp YoY drop in PAT and revenue due to sluggish volumes across JLR and domestic segments. Analysts foresee margin pressures from operating leverage, input costs, and forex challenges,...
By Akash Podishetti, ETMarkets.com |
Agencies
Tata Motors is expected to post a subdued set of earnings for the quarter ended June 2025 (Q1FY26), with analysts forecasting a 36% year-on-year (YoY) fall in consolidated profit after tax (PAT) and a 6% drop in revenue, weighed down by sluggish volumes in both its domestic and Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) businesses.
According to Kotak Equities, JLR revenues (excluding China JV) are likely to decline 16% YoY, driven by a 12% fall in volumes, despite a richer model mix supporting average selling prices (ASPs).
Reported JLR EBITDA margin is estimated to fall 680 basis points YoY to 9%, with the EBIT margin down to 3.2%, impacted by negative operating leverage, US tariffs, and adverse forex movements.
In the domestic business, Kotak projects a 6% YoY drop in standalone revenue, with EBITDA margins contracting due to commodity headwinds and increased marketing expenses, including IPL-linked promotions.
The PV EBITDA margin is estimated to decline 100 bps to 6.8%, while the CV segment is also expected to witness margin pressure.
Motilal Oswal forecasts a 10% YoY decline in India PV volumes and a 6% drop in CV volumes, with EBITDA margins in both segments contracting due to higher input costs and discounts.
JLR’s margin is expected to slide 400 bps YoY to 11.8%, with weak regional demand and product realignment weighing on performance.
YES Securities sees consolidated revenue falling 6.3% YoY to about Rs 1.01 lakh crore, while the EBITDA margin is likely to shrink 240 bps YoY to 12%. Adjusted PAT is estimated at Rs 5,730 crore, marking a 0.9% drop YoY and a sharper sequential decline of 36.9%.
With JLR accounting for a significant share of consolidated earnings, the company’s performance in this segment will be a key focus. Analysts will also watch for commentary on demand trends and margin resilience across JLR, India PV, and CV businesses.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)
According to Kotak Equities, JLR revenues (excluding China JV) are likely to decline 16% YoY, driven by a 12% fall in volumes, despite a richer model mix supporting average selling prices (ASPs).
Reported JLR EBITDA margin is estimated to fall 680 basis points YoY to 9%, with the EBIT margin down to 3.2%, impacted by negative operating leverage, US tariffs, and adverse forex movements.
In the domestic business, Kotak projects a 6% YoY drop in standalone revenue, with EBITDA margins contracting due to commodity headwinds and increased marketing expenses, including IPL-linked promotions.
The PV EBITDA margin is estimated to decline 100 bps to 6.8%, while the CV segment is also expected to witness margin pressure.
Motilal Oswal forecasts a 10% YoY decline in India PV volumes and a 6% drop in CV volumes, with EBITDA margins in both segments contracting due to higher input costs and discounts.
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JLR’s margin is expected to slide 400 bps YoY to 11.8%, with weak regional demand and product realignment weighing on performance.
YES Securities sees consolidated revenue falling 6.3% YoY to about Rs 1.01 lakh crore, while the EBITDA margin is likely to shrink 240 bps YoY to 12%. Adjusted PAT is estimated at Rs 5,730 crore, marking a 0.9% drop YoY and a sharper sequential decline of 36.9%.
With JLR accounting for a significant share of consolidated earnings, the company’s performance in this segment will be a key focus. Analysts will also watch for commentary on demand trends and margin resilience across JLR, India PV, and CV businesses.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)
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