Re may see strong support at 45.80-45.90 levels
Rupee was in a tight range of 46.40 to 45.97 during the last week closing stronger at 46.18.
By P Venkateshwara Rao
Rupee was in a tight range of 46.40 to 45.97 during the last week closing stronger at 46.18. RBI’s monetary tightening aimed at inflation control helped the currency gain strength to 45.97 levels on Friday and witnessed lot of buying by importers and oil companies at the lower levels. Weaker US unemployment and non farm pay roll numbers for July and other sluggish economic data suggest slow growth for global economy if not double dip recession. US non farm payroll fell 131,000 for July against the expectation of 65,000 with unemployment at 9.5%. Technically rupee is likely to see the strong support levels of 45.80-45.90 on Monday opening followed by good amount of buying in the coming days. The currency is in perfect correlation with Indian stocks that are expected for a correction amidst lower volumes in spite of higher levels indicating divergence. Strong up move from 45.80 levels suggests the end of second wave of Elliot Theory and a beginning of Upward 3rd wave. 47.50 is the major resistance level in the medium to long term period with weekly resistance around 46.50.
(The author is Head of Forex, IndusInd Bank)
Rupee was in a tight range of 46.40 to 45.97 during the last week closing stronger at 46.18. RBI’s monetary tightening aimed at inflation control helped the currency gain strength to 45.97 levels on Friday and witnessed lot of buying by importers and oil companies at the lower levels. Weaker US unemployment and non farm pay roll numbers for July and other sluggish economic data suggest slow growth for global economy if not double dip recession. US non farm payroll fell 131,000 for July against the expectation of 65,000 with unemployment at 9.5%. Technically rupee is likely to see the strong support levels of 45.80-45.90 on Monday opening followed by good amount of buying in the coming days. The currency is in perfect correlation with Indian stocks that are expected for a correction amidst lower volumes in spite of higher levels indicating divergence. Strong up move from 45.80 levels suggests the end of second wave of Elliot Theory and a beginning of Upward 3rd wave. 47.50 is the major resistance level in the medium to long term period with weekly resistance around 46.50.
(The author is Head of Forex, IndusInd Bank)
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