Bond yields in India creeping back to 6% as RBI goes silent

By Kartik Goyal

A conspicuous silence from the Reserve Bank of India regarding support for the nation’s bonds has left traders wondering whether the recent gains in yields is a new normal.

The central bank may be trying to increase the attraction of sovereign debt by letting yields rise, according to PNB Gilts Ltd. The benchmark 10-year bond yield advanced to 5.97% on Wednesday, the highest since May.


If that’s true, the RBI would be treading a delicate balance as a prolonged absence from the market could raise questions over support for the government’s record 12-trillion rupees ($160 billion) debt sales this fiscal year. Indian bonds are offering negative real rates, after a surge in inflation brought on by a supply crunch due to rolling lockdowns.

“The RBI could protect the 6% level. The level is a psychological mark that the RBI may want to see that yields don’t rise over and above,” said Vijay Sharma, executive vice president for fixed-income at PNB Gilts. The losses may deepen if the central bank abstains from its open-market bond purchases any further, he said.