Can doctors now see the future? New research says a person's death within 24 hours can be predicted with one test

Death has always been one of the few things medicine cannot precisely predict, even with all the advances in technology and research. Doctors can often estimate how serious a condition is, but narrowing it down to the final hours has remained difficult. Now, a new study is suggesting that a simple bedside test may help doctors identify if a person is likely to die within the next 24 hours, offering some clarity in situations where families are often left guessing.

The research, published in the BMJ Supportive and Palliative Care journal, focuses on a basic physical response, the eye’s natural blink reflex, and how its absence could signal that death is very close.

What the study found

The study was led by Dr Jung Hun Kang, director of the hospice centre at Gyeongsang National University Hospital in South Korea. Researchers observed 112 hospice patients with advanced cancer who had already been told they likely had one to two weeks to live.


Doctors and nurses tracked common signs that are usually linked to the final stage of life, including irregular breathing, bluish skin due to poor circulation, and reduced levels of consciousness. Alongside these, they paid close attention to the corneal reflex.

This reflex is the automatic blinking of the eye when it is touched. Nurses gently tested it by touching the eye’s surface with a sterile cotton wisp or gauze, approaching from the side to avoid triggering a visual reaction. The responses were recorded as intact, diminished, or absent.

Out of the 112 patients, 110 died within seven days. What stood out was that patients who had completely lost this reflex were far more likely to die within 24 hours.

Why the corneal reflex matters

The findings showed a clear pattern. Patients with an absent corneal reflex were more than five times as likely to die within a day compared to those whose reflex was still present or only weakened. Around 70.7 percent of patients without the reflex died within 24 hours.

Dr Kang explained the significance of this, saying: “Absence of the reflex may strongly support a prediction of imminent death, but preservation of the reflex does not rule it out.”

He also said: “Loss of the corneal reflex may reflect progressive deterioration of brainstem function as part of the natural dying process.”

The reflex is controlled by the brainstem, which regulates essential functions like breathing and consciousness. As these systems begin to fail, the reflex can disappear.

A difficult question doctors often face

One of the most challenging parts of end-of-life care is answering a question that families ask again and again — how much time is left. Even experienced clinicians often find it hard to give a clear answer.

Dr Kang highlighted this issue, saying: “Family members often place great importance on being present at the moment of death. That often leads to difficult and urgent questions about how much time remains.”

This is where a simple test like the corneal reflex could help doctors provide more informed guidance in the final hours.

Not a perfect prediction yet

Experts have also urged caution. The study involved a relatively small group and focused only on hospice patients with advanced cancer, which means the findings may not apply to all cases.

David Hui, director of research for supportive and palliative care at MD Anderson Cancer Center in Houston, who was not involved in the study, said the results are comparable to other recognised late signs of dying, but pointed out the limitations of the research.

The study also found that combining the corneal reflex test with the Richmond Agitation-Sedation Scale (RASS), which measures alertness and sedation, improved accuracy.

What happens next

Researchers are now planning larger studies across more diverse patient groups to confirm the findings. There is also interest in using artificial intelligence to help detect subtle patterns that might be missed during routine bedside checks.

Dr Kang said: “Improving care in the final hours of life is just as important as prolonging survival.” He added: “The better we become at recognizing imminent death, the better we can support a more peaceful and dignified experience for patients and families.”

While the idea of predicting death so precisely may sound unsettling, the goal of the research is not to alarm, but to help doctors and families prepare better for the final moments, with more clarity and less uncertainty.