India's aviation fleet to triple in size in 10 years' time, Airbus says

Airbus said on January 29 that Indian airlines are likely to triple their combined fleet to around 2,250 aircraft over the next ten years, driven by steady economic expansion, a growing middle class and a sharp rise in first-time air travellers.

On similar lines, Boeing had said a day earlier that airlines across India and South Asia -- an increasingly competitive market for aircraft manufacturers and one where Airbus currently holds a strong lead -- will need almost 3,300 new planes by 2044.

"And we are expecting a compound growth of (passenger traffic) around 8.9 per cent in the next 10 years. How do we see the infrastructure? How do we see the aviation system which will support this growth? We are expecting around 200 airports in 10 years, so another 50 airports more. We will see a tripling of the fleet. So we will have around 2,250 aircraft in service in 10 years," news agency PTI quoted Westermeier as saying.


Such regional projections are closely tracked by the global aerospace industry, as India ranks as the world’s third-largest domestic aviation market after the US and China, dominated by major carriers IndiGo and Air India.

Despite its size, India’s aviation market remains underpenetrated. Air travel stands at just 0.13 trips per person, far below levels seen in comparable regions, Jürgen Westermeier, Airbus president and managing director for India and South Asia, told news agencies.

This indicates significant untapped potential for air travel adoption, he said while releasing the forecast on the second day of India’s biennial civil aviation air show.

Westermeier also noted that certain aerospace services could benefit from lower tariffs following the recently concluded India–EU trade agreement.

India, the fastest-growing domestic aviation market globally, has followed the worldwide trend of placing large aircraft orders as airlines add capacity, phase out older, less fuel-efficient planes and cater to surging post-pandemic travel demand.

In recent years, Indian airlines have announced some of the largest aircraft orders ever, aimed at rapid fleet expansion rather than simple replacement, unlike carriers in more mature markets.

Westermeier informed that Airbus currently has a backlog of 1,250 aircraft from Indian airline players and hopes to deliver on an average 120-150 planes every year -- translating to two per week.

Airbus retained its position as the world’s largest aircraft manufacturer last year, overcoming challenges such as engine shortages, supply chain disruptions and tariff-related pressures.

Another big positive as the fleet grows will be the creation of more capacity for freight. He said. The annual cargo capacity of Indian carriers will be bigger than 5,000 kilo tonne (five million tonne), which again is a tripling of what the country has today, he forecast.

To support the expanded fleet, the demand for pilots is projected to rise sharply to 35,000 by 2035 from the current 12,000, while the technical workforce will need to nearly triple to about 34,000 from 11,000, he noted.

Alongside this, the aircraft maintenance market is expected to grow threefold over the next decade, expanding from roughly USD 3 billion today to about USD 9.5 billion, covering airframe, component and engine MRO services.

Airbus is also setting up final assembly lines for its H125 helicopters, with deliveries planned to begin next year.

At present, Airbus’s sourcing from India is valued at USD 1.5 billion, more than half of which comprises complex components such as doors. The company is additionally exploring the use of raw composite materials to further deepen its sourcing footprint in the country, Westermeier added.