Israel facing a bigger catastrophic terror attack than October 7? Why hundreds of retired IDF commanders are sounding the alarm and asking Trump to intervene

In a letter published Monday, a group of former Israeli security officials has issued a stark warning: rising violence in the West Bank, combined with political tensions inside Israel, could create a security crisis with consequences far beyond the territory. Hundreds of retired Israel Defense Forces (IDF) generals and senior security officials have urged US President Donald Trump to pressure Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government to take stronger action against extremist settler violence, according to The Times of Israel.

The appeal comes ahead of Netanyahu's scheduled meeting with Trump at the White House, with the retired security officials deliberately timing the letter to influence discussions between the two leaders. They urged the US president to use his meeting with the Israeli prime minister to press for stronger action against extremist settler violence in the West Ban

But are these former commanders predicting another attack similar to the October 7, 2023 Hamas assault? And what role can Trump realistically play in influencing Israel’s policies?

Why are ex-IDF generals raising alarms over the West Bank?

The warning was issued by Commanders for Israel’s Security (CIS), a group that says it represents more than 550 retired officials from the IDF, Mossad, Shin Bet, police and diplomatic services.

In a letter addressed to Trump, retired IDF Major General Matan Vilnai argued that continued settler violence and weakening of Palestinian institutions could create a dangerous security vacuum. The former commanders did not claim that another October 7 attack was imminent.

Instead, they warned “Should the rising swell in Jewish settler terror activity and the government policy of choking the Palestinian Authority (financially and otherwise) continue, the consequences may prove even more catastrophic than the October 7 Hamas atrocities and its multi-front fallout,” as reported by the outlet.

What is happening in the West Bank?

Violence in the West Bank has increased significantly since the October 7 attack and the subsequent Gaza war.

According to the Israeli military cited by The Times of Israel, hundreds of incidents of nationalist-related crime and settler violence have been recorded in recent years. The IDF reported 867 incidents of settler-related nationalist crime in 2025, compared with 682 in 2024.

Palestinian officials have reported more than 1,100 Palestinian deaths in the West Bank since the war began, including those killed during Israeli military operations and clashes. Israel says many of those killed were militants, attackers or people involved in violent confrontations.

Earlier this year, data released by Israel's Shin Bet indicated that Palestinians were three times more likely than Jews to be victims of terror attacks in the West Bank.

Is another October 7-style attack possible?

The comparison with October 7 is being used as a warning rather than a prediction. On October 7, 2023, Hamas-led militants launched a large-scale attack from Gaza into southern Israel, killing around 1,200 people and taking approximately 250 hostages, according to Israeli authorities.

The attack triggered the ongoing Gaza war and dramatically changed Israel’s security calculations.

Former Israeli security officials argue that the West Bank presents a different but potentially dangerous challenge. Unlike Gaza, where Hamas controlled territory before the war, the West Bank is a densely populated area where Israeli forces, Palestinian security services and Israeli settlements operate in close proximity.

They fear that prolonged violence could fuel wider unrest and create new security threats.

Why are former generals criticising Netanyahu’s government?

The retired commanders argue that political considerations are limiting security forces’ ability to deal with extremist settler violence. Their criticism has been directed particularly at members of Netanyahu’s far-right coalition, including National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who support expanding Jewish settlements and oppose Palestinian statehood.

Critics accuse the government of failing to sufficiently enforce the law against violent settlers. Government supporters reject those accusations and argue that Israel faces threats from Palestinian militant groups and that security measures are necessary to protect Israeli civilians.

Could West Bank instability affect Trump’s Middle East plans?

The former officials also warned that rising violence could undermine wider US diplomatic goals, including efforts to expand the Abraham Accords, the agreements that normalised relations between Israel and several Arab countries during Trump’s first term.

Regional governments have repeatedly linked progress in relations with Israel to the Palestinian issue and regional stability. A major escalation in the West Bank could make future diplomatic agreements more difficult.

“This trajectory threatens to devastate Israeli security, undermine US interests, and shatter regional stability. It will foreclose any option of proceeding with your Gaza 20 Point Plan and admirable ambition to expand your great achievement – the Abraham Accords,” the letter warned.