In 1998, an insect no bigger than a grain of rice reached Florida on imported plants; the start of a chain of events tied to the state's orange harvest falling more than 90%

Every time you pour a glass of orange juice these days, you're paying for a story that started with a single insect nobody noticed. It began when a tiny insect was found in Florida in 1998, and it has since affected the U.S. citrus market. According to the USDA Economic Research Service, both natural calamities and illnesses have resulted in a 92% decrease in orange production in Florida since the 2003-04 harvest period.

The agency's data shows Florida’s orange output did not just fall after one bad season. After a near-record 2003-04 harvest, production dropped at an average annual rate of 6% as freezes, hurricanes and citrus greening stacked up. It also notes that bearing acreage has been shrinking, while the 2023-24 crop was forecast at 846,000 tons, still the second-lowest harvest in nearly 90 years.

A pest that slipped in without anyone noticing


The insect arrived without raising immediate alarm. In June 1998, the Asian citrus psyllid, which is an insect measuring only about 2 to 3 millimeters and having brown spots on its wings, was detected in Florida, probably after coming in on imported citrus trees, according to a research summary from the USDA Agricultural Research Service. Individually, this tiny insect is just a pesky creature feeding on citrus leaves.

The same USDA research summary adds that this was not simply a nuisance pest but the vector for citrus greening, or Huanglongbing, a bacterial disease that can leave trees unmarketable and may kill them within 5 to 8 years. It says HLB was first found in Florida in late August 2005, and that researchers were already testing integrated control tactics, from infected-tree removal and replanting strategies to biological controls and formal psyllid-monitoring methods.

The numbers behind Florida's declining harvest

These numbers show the scale of the decline. Florida's citrus industry had already endured severe freezes in the 1970s and 1980s before greening disease appeared. After a near-record output in the 2003-04 season, subsequent events decreased Florida's orange output, and total production has fallen at an average rate of 6 percent annually, according to the same USDA Economic Research Service data.

Weather events added further damage. A string of hurricanes in 2004 and 2005 tore through groves that would soon also be weakened by citrus greening disease, and storms in the years since have added fresh damage on top of old wounds. Hurricane Milton struck Florida's core citrus belt in October 2024, and in its December 10, 2024 forecast, the USDA reported the storm's damage had pushed the 2024/25 season's orange projection down by 20 percent, from an already historically low 15 million boxes to just 12 million.

The longer-term trend is even clearer. Florida once produced 80 percent of the country's non-tangerine citrus. Today that number has decreased to less than 42 percent.

Why your orange juice costs more now

Most shoppers might not connect insect pests with higher juice prices, but the two are linked. Florida still supplies close to half the oranges used in domestic orange juice production, at 49 percent in the 2023-24 season, but California has overtaken it as the nation's top citrus-producing state.

Florida's loss has shifted the burden abroad
With domestic supply squeezed, the U.S. has leaned more heavily on imports, and Brazil has become the supplier filling much of that gap. Brazil dominates the global trade, and according to Citrus Industry Magazine, it accounts for roughly 75% of orange juice marketed worldwide, with the European Union as its largest export market, followed by the United States. That reliance means Brazilian harvests and weather now shape American juice prices almost as much as Florida's own decline does.

Is there a way back for Florida's oranges?

Florida's researchers haven't given up on citrus despite having lost a lot over nearly three decades. Scientists from the USDA research facilities and land-grant universities have been working on developing disease-resistant rootstock and other techniques that would enable the trees to survive the disease despite the inability to eradicate the psyllid that has already spread across the entire state of Florida. Although the answer has not yet been found, the rate of loss has stabilized.

This insect, introduced in a shipment of plants, has affected Florida's citrus industry for nearly 28 years, a decline that USDA Economic Research Service data links to higher grocery prices for orange juice. This might be worth remembering the next time you face an unexpected grocery price.