How does global burning show a decreasing trend as Europe and North America continue to grapple with wildfires? Scientists explain

As wildfires in Europe and North America grow more extreme, global burning statistics are paradoxically at record lows, largely because Africa and Asia are managing fires more effectively. Experts note that this contrast, rising blazes in some regions while overall numbers decline, may seem contradictory, yet both realities coexist as a result of humanity’s impact on the planet.

“It does seem like a paradox because we’re talking about increases in fires, yet the global numbers have been going down and down. But they’re both true,” said fire scientist Mike Flannigan of Thompson Rivers University in Canada, as quoted by NBC-affiliate WSLS 10.

Spain is grappling with its largest wildfire on record, scorching more than 193 square miles (500 square kilometers), according to the news outlet. Across Europe, the total area burned this summer is just shy of the all‑time peak set in 2025. As far as North America is concerned, the situation is equally severe. Canada and the United States have seen wildfire damage at least 25% above the 10‑year average, more than double the levels reported decades ago, WSLS 10 reported, citing national wildfire centers.


Large swaths of the continent have been engulfed in smoke, driving air quality to unhealthy levels. At the same time, fires are escalating in size, speed, intensity, and frequency — particularly across the United States, Canada, and Europe — according to University of Colorado fire scientist Jennifer Balch.

“Extreme wildfires are on the rise globally in different parts of the world. And that’s the piece that you know has us shaking in our boots,'' Balch said, as quoted by WSLS 10.

Scientists trace record fire emission drop to Africa and Asia

This year, global emissions from burning fires dropped to record lows as July began, marking the lowest levels since satellite tracking started nearly 25 years ago, according to the European climate center Copernicus. Senior scientist Mark Parrington explained that declines in Africa and Asia, driven by shifts in farming practices, improved fire management, and population movement, are behind the trend.

Copernicus calculated that in 2026 carbon output from fires is roughly half of what was recorded in the early 2000s. “Africa dominates the global fire activity,” said UCLA water and fire scientist Park Williams. “So if there’s a trend in Africa, then that’s going to be the trend in the global fire activity. In sub-Saharan Africa, fire activity over the last 25 years has gone down pretty dramatically.”