Elon Musk Moon city: World’s richest man plans self-growing city within 10 years, but scientists warn of a major problem that could hamper his plans

A self-growing city on the Moon that can produce its own resources and eventually accommodate millions of people may sound like science fiction. According to Reuters, Elon Musk said in early 2026 that SpaceX was turning its focus towards the Moon, with the possibility of a self-building lunar metropolis emerging within the next decade.

However, a new study suggests that such an ambitious plan could face a fundamental challenge: water.

Scientists Martin Elvis and Jonathan McDowell examined how much water could actually be available on the Moon. Their findings suggest that even the most optimistic estimate may not be sufficient to support a population of one million people indefinitely.


The research, published in Frontiers in Space Technologies, found that even with highly efficient water recycling comparable to the International Space Station, a lunar city of one million people could potentially exhaust its available water in just over a century.

If the Moon contains significantly less water than the most generous estimates suggest, that timeframe could become much shorter.

Why Water Is Crucial

Water would be far more than a basic necessity for people living on the Moon. It could support drinking, farming and other essential activities while also providing resources for space travel.

Water can be separated into oxygen and hydrogen. Oxygen could support human breathing, while hydrogen could potentially be used as rocket fuel. This makes lunar water important not only for survival but also for future missions and expansion into space.

NASA has detected water ice in permanently shadowed craters near the lunar poles. These regions are extremely cold and receive little or no sunlight, allowing ice to remain preserved for long periods. The bigger question is how much water is actually present and how easily it can be extracted.

How Much Water Does The Moon Have?

Elvis and McDowell considered a best-case estimate of around one billion tonnes of lunar water.

While that sounds enormous, the researchers found that it could still be insufficient for a million-person settlement over the long term. With extremely efficient recycling, the supply could last a little more than 100 years.

Without efficient recycling, the water could be consumed much faster.

The researchers also considered the possibility that the Moon contains far less water than the optimistic estimate. If that is the case, a million-person settlement could face a much shorter water supply window.

Smaller Moon Settlements Could Be More Sustainable

The findings do not mean that establishing human settlements on the Moon would be impossible.

A smaller population would place significantly less pressure on lunar water reserves. Bases, research stations and settlements housing thousands rather than millions of people could potentially operate for much longer periods.

This makes the availability and size of lunar water reserves a crucial factor in determining how large future settlements could become.

Extracting Lunar Ice Could Be Difficult

The presence of ice does not automatically mean it will be easy to use.

Much of the suspected lunar ice is located inside permanently shadowed craters near the poles. These areas have extremely low temperatures and difficult terrain, making extraction a major engineering challenge.

Scientists are still working to determine how much ice exists, how deeply it is buried and whether it can be accessed using future lunar technology.

Can Technology Solve The Water Problem?

Future technological advances could change the calculations.

More efficient recycling systems could reduce the amount of fresh water required. New farming techniques could also lower water consumption, while future missions might explore the possibility of bringing resources from asteroids or other parts of space.

Scientists also cannot completely rule out the possibility of finding additional water beneath the lunar surface. Much of the Moon's subsurface remains unexplored.

What This Means For Musk’s Lunar City Dream

The study does not rule out permanent human settlements on the Moon. Instead, it highlights how difficult it could be to support a population of millions with the resources currently believed to be available.

Before a self-sustaining lunar metropolis can become a reality, scientists will need a much clearer picture of the Moon's water reserves and develop reliable methods to extract and recycle them.

For a future city on the Moon, water may ultimately prove to be its most valuable resource.

[With TOI inputs]