In 1950, world witnessed strongest El Nino but weather forecasters warn of more powerful climate phenomenon that will push nearly 49 million people ⁠into acute food insecurity

El Nino is strengthening, with a greater than 90 per cent chance of a very strong ​event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter ‌2026-27, the U.S. Climate Prediction Center said on Thursday.

"During October-December 2026 season, there is 69 per cent chance of a historic event that ​would exceed the strength of previous El Niño ​events dating back to 1950," the weather forecaster ⁠added.

El Nino is a phenomenon that occurs naturally, ​when weakening trade winds cause warmer ocean waters to build ​up in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. This typically leads to higher global temperatures and altered weather patterns, bringing drought to some ​regions and heavy rainfall to others. Coupled with man-made climate ​change it adds to the risk of extreme weather.


Japan's Meteorological Agency on ‌Monday ⁠said there was a 100 per cent chance that the El Niño phenomenon will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter and into early 2027.

A powerful El Nino weather event could push nearly 49 million more people ⁠into acute food insecurity across some of the world's most vulnerable regions by the end of next year, the World Food Programme ⁠said earlier this month.

Donald Keeney, agricultural meteorologist at Vaisala Weather in Finland, said confidence was low, but the body's ⁠forecasters expected ​El Nino to peak near ​the end of this year, then subside "later in the winter and next ​spring".

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said the climate phenomenon would rapidly gain strength, as it warned countries to brace for impact. El Nino warms surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, bringing worldwide changes in winds, pressure and rainfall patterns.

It typically takes place every two to seven years and lasts around nine to 12 months. Conditions oscillate between El Nino and its opposite La Nina, with neutral conditions in between. The WMO's monthly Global Seasonal Climate Update points towards "a rapid development into a strong El Nino event during July-September". The UN agency classifies El Nino events as weak, moderate, strong or very strong, meaning it is set to reach the third-highest level out of four.

"El Nino conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific and are forecast to strengthen rapidly over the coming months, increasing the likelihood of... extreme weather events in many parts of the world," the WMO said.

The last El Nino contributed to making 2023 the second-hottest year on record and 2024 the all-time high at around 1.55C  above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average. While El Nino usually peaks between November and February, the resulting spike in temperatures typically comes later.