Who will control the US Senate in 2026? Nine races to watch

With less than three months until Election Day, the fight for control of the US Senate is entering a critical stretch, with nine states emerging as the contests most likely to determine which party controls the chamber next year.

Democrats see an opening as President Donald Trump's approval rating and economic standing weaken. A recent CNN/SSRS poll put Trump's approval at 34%, while 65% of Americans said his policies had worsened economic conditions. Democrats also held an eight-point advantage on the generic congressional ballot.

But the path to a Democratic majority remains difficult. Republicans currently hold the Senate, and Democrats need a net gain of four seats while protecting their own vulnerable incumbents.

1. North Carolina

North Carolina remains Democrats' clearest opportunity to flip a Republican-held seat.

Former Gov. Roy Cooper is facing Republican Michael Whatley in a race to replace retiring GOP Sen. Thom Tillis. Cooper's statewide political record and strong polling have made the contest a major Democratic target. CNN recently ranked the state as the Senate seat most likely to change hands.

A Fox News poll also showed Cooper with a nine-point advantage over Whatley, 53% to 44%, while Democrats held an enthusiasm edge.

2. Maine

Republican Sen. Susan Collins faces another difficult reelection campaign in a state that backed Kamala Harris in 2024.

Democrats' candidate changed late in the race after Graham Platner withdrew, with former state Senate President Troy Jackson becoming the party's nominee. A University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll conducted before Jackson formally secured the nomination showed him narrowly ahead of Collins, 49% to 46%.

Collins' independent reputation could help her, but Democratic strategists see voter dissatisfaction with Trump as a potential opening.

3. Michigan

Michigan could be the race that determines whether Democrats can realistically reach the four-seat gain they need.

Progressive Democrat Abdul El-Sayed emerged from a contentious primary and will face Republican Mike Rogers. His victory was a major win for the party's progressive wing, but his narrow primary margin leaves questions about whether he can consolidate moderate voters.

Republicans are already portraying El-Sayed as too liberal for the battleground state, while Democrats are expected to make Trump's record and economic concerns central to their campaign.

CNN's analysis has placed Michigan among the most important Republican pickup opportunities.

4. Ohio

Former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is attempting a comeback against Republican Sen. Jon Husted.

Ohio has shifted sharply toward Republicans in presidential elections, making Brown's challenge difficult. Still, his fundraising and statewide profile keep the race competitive.

Recent political handicapping has moved Ohio toward the toss-up category, underscoring the state's importance to the Democratic strategy.

5. Alaska

Former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola is challenging Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan in another race Democrats hope can break their way.

Alaska's open primary and ranked-choice voting system could make the November contest particularly unpredictable. CNN previously identified Peltola as one of the Democrats' strongest opportunities in a traditionally Republican state.

6. Iowa

Iowa could become essential to Democratic Senate math if Republicans manage to flip Michigan.

Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson is facing Democrat Josh Turek, with economic issues likely to dominate the contest. Tariffs and their impact on farmers are emerging as major Democratic talking points in a state Trump won comfortably in 2024.

CNN has highlighted Iowa as one of the deep-red states where Democrats nevertheless have a realistic pickup opportunity.

7. Texas

Texas is increasingly drawing attention as Democrat James Talarico challenges Republican Ken Paxton.

The race has tightened in recent polling, while Talarico has built a substantial fundraising advantage. Republicans are expected to rely heavily on Trump's strength in the state, while Democrats are targeting economic concerns and Paxton's political baggage.

The contest could become one of the biggest tests of whether Democrats can expand the Senate map beyond traditional battlegrounds.

8. New Hampshire

The race to replace retiring Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen remains competitive, with Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas and former Republican Sen. John E. Sununu expected to emerge as the leading candidates.

New Hampshire's status as a swing state makes the race particularly important, but Trump's weak standing there could complicate Republican efforts to flip the seat.

9. Georgia

Georgia rounds out the list despite Democrats holding the seat.

Sen. Jon Ossoff is the only Democratic Senate incumbent running in a state Trump won in 2024, making him a prime Republican target. But Ossoff enters the race with a major financial and polling advantage over Republican Mike Collins.

A Fox News poll released in July showed Ossoff leading Collins 56% to 43% among registered voters.

Republicans are expected to spend heavily to close that gap, but Ossoff's fundraising operation gives Democrats considerable room to defend the seat.

Why these races matter

North Carolina, Maine, Michigan and Ohio currently offer Democrats their clearest routes toward a Senate majority, while Alaska, Iowa and Texas could become essential if the party loses ground elsewhere.

The races are still fluid, and polling, fundraising and candidate momentum could dramatically reshape the map before November.

For now, however, these nine contests provide the clearest picture of where the 2026 US Senate battle is likely to be won or lost.