US Midterm Election 2026: Republican worries grow as Trump's approval stays low, more candidates oppose Iran war

Republicans are growing anxious about the November 3 midterm elections, with polls favouring Democrats, US President Donald Trump's approval ratings low and several party candidates in competitive races now calling for an end to the war with Iran.

Trump addressed the Republican Party's midterm convention two weeks ago, offering $5,000 checks and warning that the United States would become a "communist country" if Democrats win. Election officials in several states have since begun sending out mail ballots.

Also read: Mid term election 2026 in the US: When is the vote and what you need to know


Polls have continued to show Democrats with an edge on the generic ballot, a key indicator of voter sentiment in congressional races. Democrats also lead in some key Senate contests, including North Carolina and Georgia, both of which Trump won in 2024.

Forecasters have shifted ratings in other battleground races almost uniformly in Democrats' favour, despite efforts by Republican-led states to redraw House districts to benefit the party.

Trump's approval ratings remain low, with some surveys showing new lows. Gasoline and diesel prices have begun rising again amid the war with Iran. Republican Senator Chuck Grassley of Iowa has publicly urged the president to do more for farmers, whose businesses have been hit hard by the conflict's economic effects.

Vice-President JD Vance campaigned in Kansas last week. The state has not elected a Democrat to the Senate in nearly a century, but challenger Adam Hamilton is seen as a strong contender against Republican incumbent Roger Marshall.

Republican defections on Iran

Unease within the House Republican conference became visible when Democrats forced a vote on a war powers resolution to end the fighting with Iran. Three Republicans who had not backed the previous five such efforts supported this one, ensuring its passage.

Outgoing Congresswoman Nancy Mace, one of the three, predicted the midterms would be a "bloodbath" for her party and that it would lose control of both the Senate and the House.

More Republicans in competitive races have since spoken against the war. Mike Rogers, the Republican nominee for Michigan's open Senate seat, said in a campaign ad released on Monday that the war "needs to end, and end quickly".

Congresswoman Ashley Hinson, who is running for the Senate in Iowa, wrote on social media that the war must be brought to a "successful and immediate end". She had voted against the Democratic resolution.

John James, the Republican nominee for Michigan governor, also voted against it. He told reporters on Tuesday that "we need to end this war quickly", according to a Detroit News report.

Veteran analyst Charlie Cook wrote that Republicans should brace for outcomes ranging from "bad, really bad, or truly horrible".

Republicans point to advantages

Republicans have grown more optimistic about their Senate candidate in New Hampshire, which some major forecasters now rate a toss-up. Republicans may also have gained an edge from the mid-decade redistricting push.

Mike Marinella, a spokesperson for the National Republican Congressional Committee, said House Republicans were running with "a more favorable map, historic fundraising, stronger candidates, and a commonsense agenda". He said Democrats were burdened by "unelectable far-left nominees".

House Speaker Mike Johnson and other Republican leaders have said voters will expand the party's majority in November. They note that 23 Democrats represent districts that voted for Trump in 2024, while only eight Republicans represent districts that backed Kamala Harris. They also argue that voters remain too disenchanted with Democrats to return them to power.

Money in the race

Republicans and their allies have put $384.5 million into Senate races, against $112.7 million from Democrats and their supporters, according to data compiled by political analyst Rob Pyers. In the House, Republican supporters have spent nearly $65.7 million to the Democrats' $51.1 million. Politico has reported that much of that money has gone to districts Trump won in 2024.

Also read: US midterm elections 2026: Will Republicans and voters make the right choice?

Trump's MAGA Inc super PAC has begun spending from its $400 million war chest, buying $15 million in advertisements backing Republican Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate race. Fairshake, a super PAC linked to the cryptocurrency industry, will reportedly spend $30 million against Democrat Sherrod Brown, the former Ohio senator seeking to return to the Senate. The industry spent $40 million to help defeat him in 2024.

Democrats need to unseat at least four Republicans in states Trump won in 2024 to take the Senate. Republicans control the House by a low single-digit majority.

Julie Merz, executive director of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, acknowledged the party's fundraising struggles but said Democrats were "poised to win the majority". She said more resources would help the party break Republican gerrymanders in the south and win a larger majority.

Money alone has not decided elections. Harris and her supporters outspent Trump and his allies in 2024, an election she lost.

John T Woolley, co-director of the American Presidency Project at the University of California, Santa Barbara, said factors such as inflation and employment were unlikely to change much and district lines were fixed. "The only thing that's left is the president's approval," he said. He said Trump would need to win over swing and independent voters.

A New York Times/Siena University poll released last week found 57 per cent of independent voters planning to vote Democratic in the midterms, against 34 per cent for Republican candidates.