The next China shock could be bigger than solar, batteries and EVs

The United States has moved to ban imports of new Chinese humanoid robots, citing national security and supply chain concerns. Beijing reacted furiously, accusing Washington of abusing the concept of national security and warning that it would take measures to protect the interests of Chinese companies.

The latest clash is ostensibly about cybersecurity and strategic competition, but it also reflects a deeper reality. After emerging as the dominant force in solar panels, batteries and increasingly electric vehicles, China is rapidly establishing itself as the world's leading robotics power. The question that would confront governments and industries far beyond the US is whether humanoid robots could become the next sector in which Chinese scale, manufacturing muscle and relentless cost reduction overwhelm competitors and disrupt economies and businesses in many different ways.

A lead that alarms the world


China's rise in robotics has been swift enough to alarm policymakers. According to the International Federation of Robotics, China accounted for 54% of all industrial robot installations worldwide in 2024. The country installed roughly 295,000 industrial robots during the year and now has more than 2 million robots operating across its factories. Just as importantly, Chinese manufacturers have steadily displaced foreign rivals in their home market. Domestic companies accounted for 57% of China's industrial robot sales in 2024, up from around 28% a decade earlier.

Humanoid robots appear to be following a similar trajectory. According to Barclays, cited by AP, China accounted for about 85% of global humanoid robot deployments last year. According to Interact Analysis, cited by CNN, Chinese companies accounted for about 90% of global humanoid robot shipments in 2025. Omdia estimates that Chinese firms dominated the industry's production rankings, with AgiBot shipping more than 5,100 units, Unitree around 4,200 and UBTech about 1,000, out of roughly 13,000 humanoid robots shipped worldwide. American rivals such as Tesla and Figure AI shipped only a few hundred or fewer.

The numbers are still tiny compared with the automotive or smartphone industries. Yet they suggest that China is not merely participating in the humanoid race. It is setting the pace.

Also Read | US bans foreign-made humanoid robots, targeting China over national security

The same Chinese pattern is emerging again

The concern for many governments is not that China has invented humanoid robots. The concern is that the same industrial dynamics that reshaped several strategic sectors may now be appearing in robotics. The pattern is familiar. China did not invent solar panels or pioneer lithium-ion batteries or invented electric vehicles. But through aggressive scaling, supply chain integration and relentless cost reductions, Chinese companies became dominant players in all three industries.

The result was dramatic. Solar panel prices collapsed, Chinese battery manufacturers became indispensable to the global electric vehicle industry, and Chinese electric carmakers are now challenging established automakers across Europe, Latin America and parts of Asia.

Robotics possesses many of the same ingredients. Humanoid robots rely on batteries, electric motors, sensors, cameras, power electronics and precision manufacturing. These are all areas in which China already commands enormous industrial capacity. Much of the ecosystem built for smartphones, drones, renewable energy systems and electric vehicles can be adapted for robotics.

That creates advantages that are difficult to replicate elsewhere. A robot maker in Shenzhen or Hangzhou can source components from dense networks of suppliers, test prototypes quickly and move into production at speeds that competitors often struggle to match.

Also Read | China warns of retaliation over US curbs on robots, inverters

More than 140 manufacturers and growing

The scale of China's ambitions is becoming increasingly apparent. CNN reported that China now has more than 140 humanoid robot manufacturers and an increasingly sophisticated supply chain supporting them. What was once a niche industry has become a national strategic priority.

The country's innovation credentials are also improving rapidly. According to a report released this week by legal research platform LexisNexis, six of the world's ten strongest humanoid robot startups by patent strength are Chinese. Chinese firms occupied the top five positions in the ranking, ahead of competitors from the United States and Europe.

For years, critics of China's technology rise argued that the country excelled mainly at manufacturing and commercialization rather than innovation. Robotics increasingly challenges that assumption. Chinese firms are no longer just producing hardware at scale. They are accumulating intellectual property, developing advanced software and moving up the value chain.

Morgan Stanley estimates that China's humanoid robot market alone could reach $15 billion by 2030.

Why humanoids matter more than previous technologies

The excitement surrounding humanoid robots is not simply about another category of consumer electronics. A solar panel generates electricity. An electric vehicle provides transportation. A humanoid robot has the potential to perform work across a wide range of environments.

Factories, warehouses, logistics centers, retail outlets and even healthcare facilities are all potential deployment sites. Traditional industrial robots have existed for decades, but they are highly specialized. A welding robot welds. A painting robot paints. A warehouse robot follows a predetermined route.

Humanoid robots promise something broader. Because they are designed to operate in spaces already built for humans, they could eventually be assigned different tasks without extensive redesign. The technology remains immature. Many current demonstrations are impressive but limited. Yet investors and governments are focused on what happens if these systems become capable enough and cheap enough for widespread adoption.

That possibility explains why robotics is increasingly viewed as a strategic technology rather than merely an industrial product.

The risk of a Chinese robot glut

The scenario worrying many competitors is not that China produces the most advanced humanoid robot but that China produces the cheapest one. Morningstar analyst Kangyuxiao Li told AP that Chinese manufacturers have been scaling production and reducing costs faster than most overseas competitors. If that trend continues, Chinese robots could become the default option for companies seeking affordable automation.

The implications would be significant. Factories in Europe, Southeast Asia, Latin America and Africa could increasingly rely on Chinese robotic systems. Warehouses could deploy Chinese humanoids to reduce labour costs. Logistics companies could automate operations using hardware designed and manufactured in China. The phenomenon would resemble what happened with solar panels. Once Chinese manufacturers achieved sufficient scale, prices fell sharply and competitors struggled to survive. Many countries eventually found themselves dependent on Chinese supply chains despite efforts to diversify.

A similar outcome in robotics would have even bigger consequences because robots are not simply products. They are productivity-enhancing machines capable of affecting large sections of the economy.

A challenge for industrial strategy everywhere

The rise of Chinese robotics presents difficult questions for governments around the world. Many countries have long competed for manufacturing investment by offering lower labour costs but humanoid robots could alter that equation. If affordable robots become widely available, the importance of labour cost advantages may diminish. Manufacturers may focus instead on access to energy, capital and automation technologies.

For emerging economies that have relied on labour-intensive manufacturing as a path to industrialization, that could prove disruptive. At the same time, advanced economies face a different dilemma. Restricting Chinese robots may protect domestic producers but could also increase costs for businesses seeking automation. This tension is already visible in the debate surrounding the US ban. Chinese officials argue that their technological advances represent opportunities rather than threats. Beijing has repeatedly rejected claims that a new China shock is emerging and insists that protectionism will ultimately harm consumers and businesses.

Yet concerns are spreading beyond Washington. Governments will grapple with the possibility that robotics could become the next sector transformed by Chinese overcapacity, scale and export competitiveness. And unlike batteries, solar panels or EV, a global glut of cheap but efficient Chinese robots can create wide-ranging problems for entire industries and economies.

The robotics race is far from settled

None of this means Chinese dominance is inevitable. American companies retain strengths in advanced artificial intelligence, semiconductor technology and robotics software. Europe, Japan and South Korea continue to invest heavily in automation and robotics research. Humanoid robots also remain an unfinished technology. Building machines that can reliably navigate complex environments, manipulate objects and work safely alongside humans remains extraordinarily difficult.

The eventual winners may be those that successfully combine artificial intelligence, software and manufacturing at scale.

Yet the trajectory is becoming harder to ignore. The US decision to ban new Chinese humanoid robots was not simply a trade measure. It was an acknowledgment that robotics is emerging as the next major battleground in technology and industry.

The bigger story, however, lies beyond Washington and Beijing. The world has already witnessed how China's scale reshaped the economics of solar panels, batteries and electric vehicles. Robotics now appears to be entering a similar phase. If China succeeds in driving down costs and expanding production as it has done before, the question may no longer be whether Chinese robots become ubiquitous. It may be how the rest of the world responds when they do.