Super El Niño may kill 65 times more people than Nepal flash flood, report claims; lakhs may lose their lives in next six months

Super El Niño could kill almost 65 times as many people as the Nepal flash flood, according to a forecast by the Climate Impact Lab. The forecast sounded an alert for the next six months and said that the total number of heat-related deaths could exceed 451,000 by February 2027.

"We project that 451,000 lives will be lost due to heat in the first nine months (June-February) of El Niño, compared to a normal year. This is about 65 times larger than the 6,800 people believed to be dead or missing from the recent Nepal flash flood," said the Lab.

In just the next six months, this includes 239,000 ± 11,000 deaths across the globe, the report added. "With current forecasts suggesting El Niño will remain in place through spring 2027, we expect all of these numbers to grow even higher, particularly as impacts such as higher-than-average temperatures and heat-related deaths will linger into June and July."


The current "Super El Niño", which began in June, is expected to last through the Northern Hemisphere spring. It is expected to lead to 44% more extremely hot days than would be expected in a normal year.

Regions that are projected to see the largest increase in heat-related deaths over the next six months are spread across the Global South. The most impacted countries across the Sahel are forecast to see an additional 66,800 heat-related deaths from September to February compared to a normal year, with nearly half of those lives expected to be lost in Nigeria (31,400).

Elsewhere in the region, Sudan is expected to see 17,500 additional heat-related deaths, Niger 10,000, and Chad 8,000.

In Southeast Asia, the extra heat is projected to cause an additional 19,400 deaths in the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia, and 19,300 deaths in Indonesia. Other highly impacted countries over the next six months include India (15,800) and Brazil (13,300).

According to the analysis, the timing of deaths will vary considerably between countries over the next six months.

Those countries projected to see the largest number of excess heat-related deaths in the latter half of the forecast period – allowing more time to act – include Nigeria and Indonesia, which are expected to face 15,400 and 10,400 more heat-related deaths than normal between December and February, respectively.

Brazil and India are projected to see 8,000 and 7,400 additional heat-related deaths, respectively, over the same three-month period.

The anomalously warm temperatures that most of the globe will see during this El Niño event are a "postcard from the future": while they feel anomalous now, they could become normal just a few decades into the future.

What is El Niño?

El Niño is characterised by warmer-than-normal water temperatures in parts of the equatorial Pacific. El Niño is the warm phase of a natural climate cycle that occurs every two to seven years and is characterised by above-average ocean temperatures across the Pacific.

El Niño episodes alter winds, air pressure and cloud patterns, reshaping weather and raising the odds of extreme conditions thousands of miles away.

El Niño also temporarily boosts global temperatures, compounding the long-term warming caused by climate change and increasing the risk of extreme weather.