Social Security 2027 COLA: These 10 states could see the biggest dollar increase, with benefits as high as $2,256 a month

The official Social Security 2027 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) is now less than a month away (October), and millions of Americans are waiting to find out how much their monthly Social Security checks could increase in 2027. Current estimates have shifted in recent weeks, with the latest Senior Citizens League projection putting the 2027 Social Security COLA at 3.5%, while other forecasts have been slightly higher. The official figure is expected on October 14, 2026, after September inflation data is released.

The size of the Social Security COLA will be the same percentage for beneficiaries nationwide, but the dollar amount of the increase will not be the same. Retirees who already receive larger monthly Social Security benefits will see a larger increase in dollars when the COLA is applied. According to The Motley Fool, retirees in 10 states have the highest median Social Security benefits and therefore could see some of the biggest dollar increases in 2027.

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Social Security 2027 COLA: When will the official increase be announced?

The Social Security Administration (SSA) calculates the annual COLA using inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, or CPI-W. Specifically, the calculation uses the average CPI-W for July, August and September and compares it with the corresponding period from the previous year. The official 2027 Social Security COLA cannot be finalized until the September inflation figure is available.

The latest projection from the Senior Citizens League is for a 3.5% Social Security COLA in 2027, which would be higher than the 2.8% increase beneficiaries received in 2026. Other estimates have been around the same range, including a 3.6% projection from AARP, meaning the final COLA could still change before the official announcement.

For retirees, even a few tenths of a percentage point can make a difference over an entire year. If the 3.5% projection holds, a retiree receiving $1,940.08 per month would see an increase of about $67.90, bringing the monthly benefit to roughly $2,007.98. The actual increase for each person will depend on their existing Social Security benefit.

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These 10 states have the highest median Social Security benefits

State of residence does not directly determine a person's Social Security benefit. Instead, benefits are primarily based on factors including a worker's lifetime earnings and the age at which they claim Social Security. However, states with higher wages can have higher Social Security benefit levels, while migration patterns can also affect state-level figures.

According to Social Security Administration data cited by The Motley Fool, these are the 10 states with the highest median Social Security benefits for retired workers, based on December 2025 data:

• New Jersey — $2,256
• Connecticut — $2,249
• Delaware — $2,225
• New Hampshire — $2,215
• Maryland — $2,181
• Washington — $2,144
• Michigan — $2,139
• Minnesota — $2,135
• Massachusetts — $2,121
• Utah — $2,090

Because the COLA is applied as a percentage of an individual's existing benefit, someone receiving $2,256 per month would get a larger dollar increase from the same COLA than someone receiving $1,500 per month. For example, a 3.5% COLA would amount to about $78.96 more per month on a $2,256 benefit, before any other changes or deductions.

Social Security checks could rise in 2027, but Medicare could affect the final amount

The latest Social Security COLA estimates are only projections until the SSA announces the official number in October. The 2026 Social Security COLA was 2.8%, and the 2027 increase is currently expected to be higher, although the final figure depends on September CPI-W data.

The difference between the percentage increase and the actual amount deposited into a retiree's bank account is also important. Medicare premiums can be deducted directly from Social Security payments, so an increase in Medicare costs could reduce the amount of the COLA that some beneficiaries ultimately see in their monthly checks. The Motley Fool has also noted that retirees should wait for the official COLA and related Medicare figures before calculating their final 2027 take-home benefit.

For now, October 14 is the key date for Social Security beneficiaries. Once September's inflation data is released, the Social Security Administration should be able to finalize the 2027 Social Security COLA. Until then, the 3.5% estimate remains a forecast rather than a guaranteed increase.