Republicans have a billion-dollar answer to Trump's weak midterm polling

Republican groups are pouring money into key US Senate and House races as the party tries to overcome weak polling, voter concerns about the economy and Donald Trump’s low approval ratings ahead of the November midterms.

Republican-aligned advertisers spent more than $204 million across 10 competitive Senate races during the first 18 days of September, according to AdImpact data cited by The Wall Street Journal. That was $83 million more than spending by Democratic-aligned groups.

The Republican advantage was only about $9 million in August. The sharp increase shows that super PACs and party committees are moving into the final stretch with a strategy built around advertising, negative campaigning and financial support for candidates facing tougher races than expected.


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The GOP opens its financial war chest

Democratic candidates have often raised more money directly from voters. Republicans, however, have a stronger network of super PACs and party committees that can spend large sums on their behalf.

NPR’s analysis of AdImpact data found that Republican candidates and groups had reserved more than $557 million for nine competitive Senate races, compared with $343 million for Democrats.

The latest Republican push includes more than $150 million in initial advertising reservations from Trump-aligned groups, including MAGA Inc., No Going Back PAC and Safety and Affordability PAC.

The money is being used for television, streaming, digital and direct-mail campaigns. Much of the advertising targets Democratic candidates before they can establish their own identities with voters.

Republican strategist Scott Jennings described the influx of money as the party’s “cavalry”. Democrats argue that the spending cannot erase voter concerns about inflation, fuel prices and Trump’s record.

Texas becomes the biggest test

Texas has emerged as one of the clearest examples of the Republican strategy.

Republican groups have spent about $62 million on advertising supporting Attorney General Ken Paxton, compared with around $17 million behind Democratic candidate James Talarico, according to data cited by The Wall Street Journal.

NPR reported that pro-Paxton advertising reservations for September had crossed $94 million, compared with roughly $20 million supporting Talarico. The Republican spending in September was higher than the total Democratic advertising expenditure in Texas during the entire election cycle.

Talarico’s campaign had a significant cash advantage at the latest campaign finance deadline in June. But super PACs can raise unlimited sums, allowing Republican groups to overwhelm a candidate who has raised more money directly.

The Texas race was once considered safely Republican. It has now become a contest in which Democrats hope to force the GOP to spend heavily.

Ohio shows how outside groups are shaping the race

Ohio is another major Republican target.

Between September 1 and 17, Republican advertisements supporting Senator Jon Husted generated about 406 million impressions, compared with 320 million for Democratic candidate Sherrod Brown, according to Axios and data compiled by Kinetiq Political Insights.

Republican groups spent about $22 million on Husted’s behalf during that period, while Democratic groups spent roughly $14 million for Brown.

The crypto industry is also entering the race. Fairshake, a major crypto-backed super PAC, has reserved $30 million in advertising to oppose Brown, according to Axios.

Brown has criticised the crypto industry, and the spending could help Republicans attack him on the issue.

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More money does not always mean more reach

Republicans are spending more, but the advertising data shows that money does not automatically produce a larger audience.

In North Carolina, Republican groups spent more than Democrats during the first weeks of September. Yet Democratic candidate Roy Cooper’s advertising generated 245 million impressions, compared with 226 million for Republican Michael Whatley, according to Axios.

Republicans spent about $10.6 million in the race, compared with $9 million by Democrats. One Republican super PAC later removed $6.5 million worth of October advertising reservations, suggesting that the party may redirect funds if it believes the race is becoming difficult to win.

Advertising costs also vary by the source of the money. Candidates receive lower broadcast rates, while super PACs and other outside groups often pay more for comparable advertising space.

Democratic candidates may therefore get more airtime from each dollar raised directly, even when Republican groups have more money overall.

The spending is also about defence

The Republican campaign is not only targeting Democratic seats. Much of the spending is going into states and districts that supported Trump in 2024 but have become competitive.

Alaska, Texas, North Carolina and Ohio as Senate races where Republican defeats could help Democrats gain control of the chamber.

In the House, Trump-aligned groups are spending in districts in Texas, Kentucky and Alabama that Trump carried by large margins in 2024. Their involvement suggests that Republicans are worried about a broader backlash that could affect districts once considered safe.

Republican groups are also spending in Maine, Kansas and Michigan, where Senate races have become more competitive.

Can money change the political mood?

The Republican strategy faces a basic problem: advertising can change what voters see, but it may not change what they feel.

Recent polling has shown Democrats gaining on the generic congressional ballot, while Trump’s ratings on inflation, gas prices and the economy remain weak. Voters are also approaching the midterms with concerns about household costs.

Republican strategists believe the spending will give candidates the ability to define their opponents and make a stronger case before voting begins. Democratic strategists say the advertising cannot easily overcome dissatisfaction with the administration.

The late timing adds another risk. Axios reported that Republican strategists are concerned that some voters may already have formed views about the candidates and the races.

The GOP has therefore chosen a straightforward midterm rescue plan: flood the battlegrounds with money, protect vulnerable seats and force Democrats to defend more territory.

The question is whether the spending can change the fundamentals of the election—or merely make the final weeks louder and more expensive.