India likely to see below-normal rainfall in second half of monsoon: IMD

India's average rainfall during the second half of the southwest monsoon season is likely to be below normal, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Friday, forecasting August-September precipitation at 94% of the long-period average (LPA).

The weather office also said rainfall across the country in August is most likely to remain below normal.

The IMD's latest long-range forecast indicates that cumulative rainfall during August and September: the second half of the four-month southwest monsoon season, is expected to remain below the climatological average.


Also read: How the rain gods impact the Indian economy

The weather office projected August-September rainfall at 94% of the long-period average, while forecasting monthly average rainfall over India as a whole to be below normal in August.

The August-September period is critical for the progress of the kharif cropping season, as rainfall during these months influences soil moisture, reservoir levels and crop development across large parts of the country.

The IMD's latest outlook points to a weaker-than-normal rainfall pattern during the latter half of the southwest monsoon season.

Monsoon revival narrows sowing gap

After an erratic start to the southwest monsoon, widespread rainfall over the past few weeks has accelerated the sowing of key summer crops, including rice, soybean and cotton, sharply reducing the planting deficit seen earlier in the season.

India's monsoon rainfall deficit has narrowed to 16% from nearly 40% at the end of June, although some regions continue to face rainfall shortages of as much as 40%, according to Reuters.

Summer crop sowing, which was nearly a quarter lower than a year earlier at the end of June, has since recovered significantly.

Farmers had planted summer-sown crops across 78.7 million hectares as of July 24, compared with 82.6 million hectares a year ago, with the overall sowing shortfall narrowing to less than 5%, according to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers' Welfare.

Also read: Monsoon revival boosts summer crop planting in India

July rains buck El Niño expectations

India's monsoon staged an unexpected recovery in July despite forecasts of below-normal rainfall under the influence of a strengthening El Niño, easing concerns over a sharp seasonal shortfall even as rainfall remained uneven across regions, according to a Times of India report.

As of July 30, the country had received 270.1 mm of rainfall during July against the normal 271.9 mm, remaining well within the normal range despite the IMD earlier forecasting monthly rainfall at less than 94% of the long-period average. The national monsoon rainfall deficit since June 1 also narrowed to 14% from around 40% at the end of June.

The recovery, however, masked sharp regional disparities. Central India recorded 29% excess rainfall during July, while east and northeast India remained 30% below normal and south India logged a 28% deficit.

Across the season so far, 17 meteorological subdivisions continued to report deficient rainfall despite the overall improvement.