East, Central India to see most late-monsoon rains; El Nino to persist into 2027: Report

New Delhi: East and Central India are expected to receive most of the rainfall in the final weeks of the monsoon as it begins to withdraw from Northwest India, while El Nino has strengthened sharply and is expected to continue well into 2027, as per a report by Dolat Capital.

According to the report, East and Northeast India recorded the greatest improvement, with the rainfall deficit narrowing to 27 per cent from 29 per cent in the previous week. At the same time, the South Peninsula also saw a marginal improvement, with its deficit easing to 26 per cent from 28 per cent.

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Central India's deficit remained broadly unchanged at 6 per cent, while Northwest India saw a slight deterioration, with the shortfall widening to 10 per cent from 9 per cent.

"The all-India rainfall shortfall held flat at -15% for the season this week, breaking the pattern of continued widening seen previously, as most regions posted recovery," it noted.

However, it flagged that a well-marked low-pressure area over the Bay of Bengal is simultaneously tracking toward the East Coast and is expected to intensify before landfall, keeping East and Central India active in the near term.

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On the agriculture front, kharif sowing made further progress during the week, with total acreage reaching 1,103.9 lakh hectares as of September 18.

Also, the overall shortfall compared with the same period last year narrowed to 15.1 lakh hectares from 16 lakh hectares in the previous week, although the improvement remained uneven across crops

Oilseed acreage moved into a marginal surplus over last year for the first time this season, while sowing of pulses remained steady. However, rice continued to lag, with its acreage deficit widening for another week. "Coverage stood at 429.3 lakh ha against 445.9 lakh ha last year, with the shortfall stretching to 16.6 lakh ha from 17.0 lakh h," it noted.

At the same time, cotton gave up some of its earlier gains as "Sowing stood at 109.6 lakh ha versus 110.6 lakh ha last year, with the shortfall holding at 1.0 lakh ha, broadly flat relative to the previous week."

However, acreage under sugarcane and jute and mesta remained broadly unchanged.

Overall, sowing activity continued to advance, while reservoir storage remained above the 10-year average across Central and Western India. However, the South Peninsula continued to lag in both sowing progress and reservoir levels.

At the same time, "El Nino has strengthened significantly and is now tracking toward what could be one of the strongest episodes on record, with the event expected to persist well into 2027," Dolat Capital noted further.