Global Market: Diesel prices surge to record highs as wars squeeze global fuel supplies

Diesel prices in Europe and the United States have surged to record levels as disruptions linked to the wars in Iran and Ukraine curb exports from major producers and leave global refineries with limited spare capacity, Reuters reported.

European diesel futures closed at an all-time high last week, more than doubling from the start of 2026. Supply disruptions have also spread to the Red Sea, a key region for Saudi Arabia's diesel exports.

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The conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine have damaged refining infrastructure, while refineries in other regions are operating at elevated rates to compensate for lost supplies. In the United States, refinery utilisation reached its highest level in eight years in late August, according to the International Energy Agency, Reuters reported.

The IEA said in a Monday newsletter that many refineries worldwide were already operating close to their limits, leaving limited scope to offset additional supply disruptions. The agency warned that this could lead to tighter fuel supplies and further price increases in the coming months.

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Middle East exports plunge
Diesel exports from the Middle East fell by half between March and August compared with the same period a year earlier, averaging about 800,000 barrels per day, according to shipping data from Kpler.

The region accounted for nearly 41% of Europe's diesel imports in 2025, making disruptions to Middle Eastern supply particularly important for the European market.

Kpler analyst George Shaw said the diesel market remained vulnerable because refining capacity had become the main constraint. He also warned that any further disruption to flows through the Red Sea could tighten an already stretched global market, Reuters reported.

Russian refinery attacks hit exports
Russia's diesel supplies have also been disrupted after Ukrainian drone attacks reduced refinery output. Moscow imposed a ban on diesel exports in July, further restricting international supplies.

Russia is the world's second-largest diesel exporter after the United States and had been a major supplier to markets including Turkey and Brazil. Those buyers have since been forced to seek alternative sources.

The attacks on energy infrastructure in Russia and Ukraine have continued despite an announcement by U.S. President Donald Trump last week that the two sides had agreed to halt such attacks. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Sunday that he would meet Trump in the coming days.

In Europe, diesel inventories at the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp refining and storage hub fell to their lowest seasonal level on September 10, according to Insights Global data.

US diesel prices cross $6 a gallon

The supply squeeze has also pushed US diesel prices to unprecedented levels. Average retail diesel prices climbed above $6 a gallon for the first time on record this month.

US inventories remain well below typical seasonal levels despite refiners operating at high rates. Diesel stocks increased by around 600,000 barrels last week to 96.97 million barrels, but remained nearly 15% below the five-year average for the second week of September.

The combination of low inventories and limited refining flexibility leaves the US market exposed to further disruptions in global fuel supplies.

Asian market remains elevatedAsian diesel prices have also risen sharply as disruptions to Middle Eastern and Russian supplies reverberate across the global market.

The benchmark Asian diesel swap price has eased from a record above $200 a barrel reached in March, but remained around $180 a barrel on September 18. Prices are still roughly twice their pre-war levels.

China has added to the supply squeeze through lower refined-product exports. Diesel shipments from the country fell 26% year-on-year during April-June after the government restricted refined-product exports, contributing to tighter global availability following the Iran war.

Chinese diesel exports subsequently rebounded, reaching their highest level in nearly two and a half years in August at around 320,000 barrels per day. The increase in overseas shipments, however, has also contributed to lower domestic inventories.

With major producers facing refinery damage, export restrictions and logistical disruptions, global diesel markets remain vulnerable to further supply shocks. Reuters reported that the limited availability of spare refining capacity could make it difficult for producers to quickly respond if disruptions intensify.