US Fed action, oil swings to test bullion as traders eye West Asia risks: Analysts

Gold and silver are heading into a crucial week, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, oil price movement and the US-Iran conflict determining whether bullion extends its recovery or comes under renewed pressure, analysts said.

Apart from the Fed's decision, investors will monitor US Consumer Confidence, Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data, weekly jobless claims and monetary policy announcements by the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan.

"Market sentiment will continue to be driven by developments in the US-Iran geopolitical situation, the direction of crude oil prices, and their impact on inflation expectations ahead of the US Federal Reserve's policy decision on July 29," said Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst - Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities.


On the domestic front, gold futures for August delivery rose Rs 2,200, or 1.6 per cent, to close at Rs 1.43 lakh per 10 grams during the last week.

Silver futures for September delivery gained Rs 5,735, or 2.7 per cent, to Rs 2.22 lakh per kilogram on the Multi Commodity Exchange.

Globally, Comex gold futures for August delivery advanced USD 52, or 1.3 per cent, to settle at USD 4,070.8 per ounce and silver for the September contract rose USD 3, or nearly 5 per cent, to USD 58.90 per ounce in New York.

Analysts said bullion witnessed sharp swings during the week after Brent crude briefly reclaimed the USD 100-per-barrel mark, following Houthi strikes on Saudi-owned vessels, stoking fears of supply disruptions.

However, oil later retreated as investors booked profits, helping precious metals recover towards the end of the week.

Praveen Singh, Head of Commodities at Mirae Asset ShareKhan, said gold and silver are likely to trade in a range as markets continue to monitor developments surrounding Iran.

He added that China's central bank continued to accumulate gold in May, reinforcing official-sector demand as a key pillar of support for the yellow metal.

Traders also expect shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz to remain in focus, while comments from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh after the policy announcement will be closely scrutinised for signals on the future path of US interest rates and the trajectory of bullion prices.