Paytm shares recover 410% from 2024 low, but will long-awaiting IPO investors finally see redemption?

The shares of Paytm-parent One 97 Communications have recovered over 410% from a lifetime low in around two years, with investors now eyeing the stock’s IPO level which is around 36% away.

Paytm's IPO investors have awaited redemption since the fintech platform's weak market debut in November 2021, when shares listed at 9% discount over IPO price at Rs 1,955 apiece. The stock then tumbled over 84% to hit a peak low of Rs 310 apiece in May 2024 during the aftermath of RBI’s crackdown on Paytm Payments Bank, before beginning a sharp turnaround cycle.

Paytm shares jumped around 10% on Monday, pushing the stock around 411% higher than its all time low of Rs 310 apiece.

Bernstein sees Paytm shares finally crossing their 2021 IPO price

Despite the sharp fall from IPO price, Paytm’s long-term investors found a silver lining recently after Bernstein raised its target price for the stock to Rs 2,200 from Rs 1,500, while retaining its Outperform rating. The latest target price is the highest on the Street and marks the first time Paytm has received a target price above its IPO price. It implies 39% upside potential from previous closing price.

The target price hike comes as Bernstein incorporates the introduction of MDR on UPI transactions into its base case from FY28 onwards. The brokerage expects MDR to improve Paytm's net payments margin by around 3-4 basis points, resulting in an estimated 30% increase in FY30 EPS compared with its previous forecasts.

Also read | Paytm shares jump after Bernstein assigns target price above IPO price for first time

What lies ahead for Paytm share price?

Paytm shares have clearly moved from a turnaround phase into a strong uptrend, said Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking. He added that the recent breakout above the Rs 1,350 zone after several months of consolidation is technically encouraging and could open the door towards Rs 1,650–1,750 in the next leg.

However, the stock has already rallied sharply, so some profit-taking or consolidation cannot be ruled out, particularly with momentum indicators entering elevated territory, according to the analyst. “For IPO investors, the Rs 2,150 level is getting closer, but redemption should not be assumed yet. The key is whether Paytm can sustain above Rs 1,350–1,400; holding this zone would keep the larger recovery story intact,” he added.

According to Sudeep Shah from SBI Securities, the uptrend in Paytm shares is likely to continue as long as the stock sustains above the Rs 1,440–1,450 zone.

Paytm share price

Paytm shares have gained over 12% in a week and 18% in one month, with the stock being overall up around 23% in 2026 so far.

In the longer term, Paytm shares have jumped over 49% in one year and 85% in three years. The stock currently has a market capitalisation of Rs 1.02 lakh crore.

Also read | Has Dalal Street's near term outlook improved? HSBC lists 4 headwinds, 3 tailwinds to watch out for

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)