NSE shares jump 5% after muted debut, market value swells by Rs 19,290 crore. Why Macquarie, other brokerages are bullish

Shares of National Stock Exchange (NSE) jumped more than 5% after making a muted Dalal Street debut on Thursday, with brokerages issuing bullish calls and target prices implying up to 22% upside potential.

NSE shares listed at Rs 1,800 apiece on BSE. This marks 0.8% premium over its IPO price of Rs 1,785 apiece, missing grey market estimates. The company’s market capitalisation at the time of debut stood at around Rs 4.45 lakh crore.

In less than an hour since the muted market debut, NSE shares jumped more than 5% from IPO price to hit a high of Rs 1,878 apiece. The sharp gains added around Rs 19,290 crore to the stock exchange’s market capitalisation, pushing it up to Rs 4.64 lakh crore.


Read More: NSE Share Price Live Updates

Notably, NSE’s market cap is sharply higher than the Rs 1.33 lakh crore market cap BSE currently commands.

NSE listing premium vs GMP

NSE’s much-awaited market debut however missed grey market estimates. Ahead of listing, the unlisted shares of the company were trading with 2% grey market premium (GMP) over the IPO price, according to sites tracking the unofficial grey market.

The listing marks the end of the long running process that faced several regulatory hurdles earlier. The company’s initial public offering was launched earlier this month to raise Rs 22,562 crore entirely through an offer for sale (OFS) of 12.64 crore shares by existing shareholders. This means none of the IPO proceeds will go to NSE, as they will be received by the selling shareholders.

NSE shares were offered at a price band of Rs 1,700 to 1,785 apiece. With a lot size of 8 shares, the minimum retail application amount comes to Rs 14,280. A day before the IPO opened for public bidding, the stock exchange raised Rs 6,746 crore from more than 150 anchor investors.

The maiden public issue of NSE saw strong investor interest during its three days of public bidding, being subscribed nearly 6 times its offer size between September 17 and September 21. Qualified institutional buyers (QIB) led the demand, booking their reserved portion around 13 times, while the portions kept for retail investors and non-institutional investors (NII) were booked 1.4 times and 6.6 times, respectively.

Read More: Didn’t get NSE IPO shares? Should you buy on listing, wait for a dip or bet on BSE?

NSE Share Price: NSE shares make muted debut, but Macquarie remains bullish

Ahead of listing, Macquarie initiated coverage on NSE shares with an Outperform rating and a target price of Rs 1,965 apiece, implying an upside potential of 10% from the upper price band. The international brokerage described NSE as “The Dominator,” citing its leading market share and strong market position. It highlighted NSE’s full suite of services, technology and deep liquidity, which make it a key part of India’s financialization, calling it the “lynchpin” of India's financialization. Strong network effects, profitability, and cash generation further support the business.

Strong network effects, profitability and cash generation further support the business, according to Macquarie, which expects platform expansion to drive revenue growth, while noting near-term pressure from CAS.

Should you buy, sell or hold NSE shares?

Emkay sees 15% upside in NSE share price

Emkay Research initiated coverage on the shares of NSE with a ‘Buy’ call and a target price of Rs 2,050 apiece, implying 15% upside potential. The brokerage’s positive view on NSE is underpinned by three factors. Firstly, India’s capital market development and growth story has a long runway as wealth creation and financialization gain momentum in India’s journey. Secondly, NSE has demonstrated its resilient leadership position over decades across the business segments of capital markets, and the business model has enough levers to adjust amid changing regulatory and macroeconomic landscapes and deliver profitable growth.

Finally, the brokerage highlighted that strong profitability and cash generation by MIIs, such as stock exchanges, enable them to globally command higher valuation multiples versus other capital market players that are more fragmented and susceptible to competition.

Read More: NSE shares get ‘The Dominator’ tag as Macquarie initiates coverage with Outperform

PL Capital on NSE share price

PL Capital initiated coverage on NSE shares with ‘Accumulate’ rating and a target price of Rs 1,950 apiece. The brokerage said the stock exchange dominates the exchange landscape with over 93% share in cash market and 100% in stock and index futures, supported by strong liquidity, robust technology and a comprehensive product suite.

Market share in index options has declined to 65% so far in FY27 due to regulatory hurdles, and introduction of CAS and prop trading rules has impacted volumes further, PL Capital however noted. “While revenue grew at 25% CAGR in FY21- 26, we build a CAGR of 11% over FY26-29 due to shrinking share in index options. We expect EBITDA margin to recover to 76% by FY29 (vs. 71% in FY26) as one-offs get adjusted, in-line with PAT CAGR of 11%,” it added.

Swastika Investmart on NSE share price

NSE is India’s leading exchange, with a dominant market share across cash and equity derivatives, noted Shivani Nyati, Head of Wealth at Swastika Investmart. At Rs 1,700–1,785, the IPO is valued at around 40.9x–42.9x FY26 diluted EPS, at a discount to BSE’s 54.28x, offering valuation support.

However, around 79% of revenue is linked to trading activity, making earnings sensitive to market volumes and regulatory changes, she added. “Our pre-listing view is Subscribe, with minor listing gains expected, but the IPO remains suitable for a long-term investment play, supported by NSE’s strong market position, scale and relative valuation advantage,” she further said.