Rupee ends marginally higher in subdued trade, forward premiums ease

The Indian rupee ended marginally stronger on Monday after hovering in a narrow band, supported by lower oil prices and portfolio inflows, while sustained importer hedging demand kept its gains in check.

The rupee closed at 95.8150 per dollar, up slightly from its close at 95.8725 in the previous session.

Asian currencies were mostly range-bound, while regional equities advanced after oil prices fell 2%, as investors hoped for diplomatic progress on the Iran war due to this week's UN meeting, and eyed a partial recovery in shipments from Saudi Arabia.


Inflows related to the National Stock Exchange of India's IPO also helped the rupee while dollar bids from importers, including local oil refiners, kept a lid on the size of its gains, traders said.

Meanwhile, dollar-rupee forward premiums eased, with the August 2027 month-end premium down 6 paisa at 2.94 rupees, reflecting the trimming of previously paid positions, as traders assessed whether India will join the global trend of higher benchmark rates as global central banks grapple with inflation.

While the market is pricing in rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of India in the near term, forward premiums would decline sharply if that does not materialise, prompting some participants to trim stale positions, a trader at a state-run bank said.

After the U.S. Federal Reserve raised rates last week, analysts at ING reckon that "the scope to keep pricing a more hawkish Fed after the September FOMC remains a key argument for further US dollar gains."

"We now expect both the European Central Bank and the Fed to hike rates in December," ING said.

Traders are currently pricing in a 55% chance of a rate hike at the Fed's next meeting in October, up from 42.5% a week earlier, the CME FedWatch tool showed.