Oil Price Today (September 21): Crude oil falls for 4th day, below $102. What’s triggering the fall?

Oil prices fell for a fourth consecutive session on Monday as investors hope of a recovery in Saudi Arabian shipments, even as attacks by Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis continued to raise tensions across the Middle East amid a stalemate between the US and Iran.

The Houthis said on Saturday that they had targeted "sensitive" sites in the Saudi capital Riyadh with missiles and drones, along with an Aramco facility in Yanbu on the Red Sea, a key oil export hub. The attacks on Saudi Aramco's East-West pipeline have led the state energy company to increase exports through the Strait of Hormuz this month and next, after suspending some shipments through Yanbu.

Read more: US ships in Indian Ocean will be attacked if war resumes, warns Iran

Crude oil price on September 21

Brent crude futures fell $2.16 cents, or 2.1%, to $101.70 a barrel after settling 0.91% lower on Friday. US West Texas Intermediate crude declined $2.09 cents, or 2.10%, to $98.20 a barrel, following a 1.58% drop in the previous session.

As a result, Saudi Arabia's exports have recovered to just over 4 million barrels per day (bpd) so far in September, up from 2.4 million bpd in August. The August figure was the lowest since at least 2013, according to provisional data from analytics firm Kpler.

"Middle East oil flows remain surprisingly strong despite the disruption to Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline," JPMorgan analysts said in a September 18 note. Total oil flows averaged 17.1 million bpd over the past 10 days, which was 6.1 million bpd below the 2025 average, they said.

China has also asked Iran to help curb the Houthi attacks following an appeal from Saudi Arabia, according to a Reuters report.

Meanwhile, Iran and the US traded fresh threats on Sunday as the stalemate continued. US President Donald Trump said he would be open to meeting Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, who is expected to be in New York this week for the United Nations General Assembly.

Iran has also communicated its conditions to mediators for returning to negotiations aimed at ending the war with the US.

Read more: US issues Iran travel warning, urges citizens to leave country amid rising West Asia tensions

Risks remain

Wall Street major JPMorgan has lost clarity on where oil prices are headed. For the first time since the Iran war erupted in February, the bank no longer has a clear baseline view for oil markets as escalating tensions fuel fears of an already worsening supply shock.

“We simply don't know how to model the endgame,” analysts at the bank said, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding how the conflict could ultimately unfold. At the start of the conflict, JPMorgan had assumed there were certain economic thresholds that the US administration would not cross. But six months into the war, many of those lines have been crossed, while there is still no clear exit strategy in sight, the bank said.

The uncertainty in the market was underscored by JPMorgan, which said on Thursday that it did not have a clear baseline view for oil markets for the first time since the US-Israeli war on Iran began.

The possibility of further supply disruptions has increasingly tilted the risks for oil prices to the upside. Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, said recent attacks had shown that shipping disruptions could spread and become more severe.

Goldman Sachs has outlined a scenario in which oil prices could reach as high as $120 a barrel if attacks on vessels in the Middle East intensify. If exports return to normal, the bank expects oil prices to fall back toward $80 a barrel. Struyven told Bloomberg that shipping risks had become an important driver of oil prices.

Struyven said Goldman Sachs sees "meaningful upside to crude oil prices" and also expects natural gas and refined product prices to rise. He added that supply shocks in gas and fuels are larger than those in the crude market.

ANZ analysts said a prolonged standoff involving calibrated military action by the US and Iran appeared to be the most likely scenario, potentially delaying the return of full Middle Eastern supply.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)