India’s $40 billion Russian oil lifeline shouldn’t buckle under Trump’s 100% tariff threat: GTRI

India should not allow the threat of higher US tariffs to determine its energy policy and should continue buying Russian crude as long as it remains commercially attractive, the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) has said, as the US moves closer to giving President Donald Trump greater powers to penalise countries that continue purchasing Russian energy.

The US Senate on August 7 passed the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026 by an 86-11 vote. The legislation could allow the US president to impose additional tariffs of up to 100% on goods from countries that continue buying Russian crude oil or natural gas and rank among the five largest buyers of Russian energy.

Also Read: 100% tariff threat looms over India as US senate passes Russia sanctions bill


The bill, however, does not automatically impose a 100% tariff on India. It must first clear the US House of Representatives before it can become law. The House is expected to take up the legislation when it reconvenes on August 31.

If enacted, the measure would give the US president significant discretion to impose country-specific tariffs. The proposed tariffs would apply to countries that continue purchasing Russian crude or natural gas 30 days after the law takes effect and are among the five largest buyers of Russian energy.

The bill’s sponsors have identified China, India, Slovakia, Hungary and Azerbaijan as the five largest buyers of Russian crude.

The additional tariff could range from above zero to as much as 100%, depending on whether a country increases, reduces or stops its purchases of Russian energy. These duties would be imposed on top of existing US tariffs, including those levied under Sections 301 and 232, as well as antidumping and countervailing duties.

India’s exposure to Russian crude

India is particularly exposed because Russian oil has become a major component of its crude import basket.

Russia accounted for 30.3% of India’s crude imports in FY2026, with purchases worth $40.8 billion out of total crude imports of $134.7 billion, according to the GTRI report.

The research body said discounted Russian crude has helped India reduce its oil import bill, strengthen energy security and contain inflation.

“India shouldn’t allow tariff threats to determine its energy policy. As long as Russian crude remains commercially attractive, India should continue buying it. Differences with Washington must be managed through firm negotiation—not extending unilateral concessions that raise India’s energy costs and weaken its strategic autonomy,” the think tank founder Ajay Srivastava said.

The potential US tariff action therefore presents India with a trade-off between retaining access to relatively cheaper Russian crude and protecting its exports to the US from additional duties.

Also Read: US Senate passes sweeping Russia sanctions bill; new tariff threat for India, China ahead

China buys more, but India could face pressure

GTRI noted that China buys more Russian crude than India, but said India could nevertheless face greater pressure from Washington because the proposed legislation gives the US president broad discretion to determine country-specific tariff levels.

The report also pointed to an earlier instance of India facing Russia-related trade pressure from the US. Washington imposed an additional 25% Russia-related tariff on Indian goods in July 2025, before withdrawing it in February 2026.

The latest legislation could therefore reopen a trade-policy vulnerability for India, particularly if Washington links access to the US market with India's purchases of Russian energy.

India is also buying more US energy

GTRI argued that India's growing purchases of American energy also complicate the case for using tariffs to pressure New Delhi over Russian crude.

India’s imports of US crude increased from $6.6 billion to $9.1 billion in FY2026, while total energy purchases from the US reached $12.5 billion.

The purchases included $1.4 billion worth of LNG, $896 million of LPG and $861 million of petroleum coke.

According to GTRI, these figures show that India is not shutting out American energy even as it continues to source substantial volumes of crude from Russia.

Tariffs becoming a foreign-policy tool

The research body also raised concerns about the broader use of US trade restrictions to pursue foreign-policy objectives.

It said reciprocal tariffs, Section 301 investigations, forced-labour measures, sector-specific duties and Russia-related sanctions increasingly show how tariffs are being used as instruments of strategic pressure.

For India, the concern extends beyond the immediate question of Russian oil. Higher tariffs on Indian exports could raise costs for Indian businesses and potentially undermine the economic benefits of maintaining access to discounted Russian crude.

The Senate legislation is now headed back to the House. Lawmakers there can approve, amend or reject the Senate version. If the House makes changes, both chambers will have to agree on identical legislation before it can be sent to Trump.

The White House has indicated that Trump would sign the measure, although its passage through the House is not certain. Some US lawmakers have raised concerns about expanding presidential tariff powers and the potential impact on American businesses and consumers.

For India, the outcome could determine how much room New Delhi has to continue its Russian oil purchases without facing a fresh round of US trade penalties.