Will Trump pull a ‘Maduro’ on Raúl Castro after Florida obtains arrest warrant against him? What the Cuba leader could face next

Florida secured an arrest warrant for Former Cuban president Raúl Castro over the 1996 shootdown of two civilian planes. The move has raised questions about whether President Donald Trump could use a pressure campaign similar to the one directed at Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro.

Florida Attorney General James Uthmeier announced Monday that Castro has been charged with conspiracy to commit first-degree murder, as per Fox News, CBS12 and WPTV.

Florida arrest warrant for Raúl Castro

A Miami-Dade judge signed the no-bond arrest warrant on Friday after finding probable cause to believe Castro conspired to commit first-degree murder. Chief Judge Ariana Fajardo Orshan of Florida’s 11th Judicial Circuit signed the warrant, according to the attorney general’s office.

The charges stem from the February 24 1996, shootdown of two planes operated by Brothers to the Rescue, a Miami-based group of Cuban exiles. Four men, including three U.S. citizens, died in the attack. They were identified as Carlos Costa, Armando Alejandre Jr., Mario de la Peña and Pablo Morales.

According to the state affidavit, Cuban intelligence agents had infiltrated the group and passed flight information to Cuba. Prosecutors allege Castro, who was defense minister and first vice president at the time, was a senior decision-maker in the chain of command that authorized the attack.

Three unarmed planes had departed Opa-Locka Airport. Cuban MiG fighter jets later fired missiles at two of them over international waters, killing everyone aboard, the affidavit says.

Uthmeier said he directed Florida’s Office of Statewide Prosecution to reopen the investigation last year. The office worked with the Florida Department of Law Enforcement to secure the warrant, and further charges remain possible.

“Florida will never stop pursuing accountability for that communist conspiracy,” Uthmeier said Monday.

Could Trump use the Maduro strategy against Cuba

The Florida warrant comes as the Trump administration increases pressure on Havana through legal action, economic measures and public appeals to Cubans. Federal prosecutors have also charged Castro and other former Cuban officials over the 1996 attack, according to the supplied reporting. The federal case has prompted comparisons with the earlier U.S. campaign against Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, which included criminal charges, tighter sanctions and increased military activity in the Caribbean.

Cuba expert Christine Balling, a former adviser to U.S. Special Operations Command South, told Fox News Digital that the indictment carries symbolic weight.

“At the very least, it means symbolically that he is now set up just as Nicolás Maduro was,” she said.

However, Balling cautioned against assuming Washington will repeat the same approach.

"I don't think that we are necessarily going to conduct the same operation," Balling said. "Raúl Castro is 94 years old. It might not be worth the trouble."

She added that the charges send a clear message about the administration’s position on Cuba’s leadership.

What could happen to Castro next

The arrest warrant could limit Castro’s ability to travel to countries with extradition agreements with the United States, Uthmeier said. But it remains uncertain whether the former Cuban leader will ever appear in a U.S. courtroom.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio has also accused Havana of blaming the United States for Cuba’s economic problems while military-linked elites control major parts of the economy. He has urged Cubans to look at the role their own government has played in the country’s decline.

Trump, meanwhile, played down the prospect of further escalation when asked about Cuba.

"There won’t be escalation," Trump said. "We won’t have to."

The administration has not announced military plans for Cuba. Still, the combination of criminal charges, economic pressure and a visible U.S. military presence in the Caribbean has fueled speculation about Washington’s next steps.

Analysts warn that destabilizing Cuba could also trigger a major migration crisis. For now, the arrest warrant marks another step in the pressure campaign, but what it will mean for Castro and Cuba remains uncertain.