Why the US may not know who controls the Senate for weeks, and the two states to blame

Americans may go to the polls on November 3, but the country might have to wait much longer to find out which party will control the US Senate. Two states could play a major role in that delay: California and Alaska. Both these states tend to have close races and voting systems that can take time to produce final results. This delay does not necessarily mean something has gone wrong.

Why can election results take days or weeks

The time it takes to announce a winner often depends on how close a race is, not simply how quickly ballots are counted. As NPR reports, election-night results are usually projections made by news organizations, not the final count of every ballot. The Associated Press, which NPR relies on for its race calls, uses early returns and information about a state's or district's voting patterns to determine when a contest can be called.


Analysts need more results before declaring a winner in a close race. That is why states with competitive contests and slower counting processes can keep the country waiting. Former Maricopa County election official Stephen Richer described the pressure election workers face when large numbers of ballots remain uncounted.

"Those days, those were hell for me," Richer said. He recalled having limited staff and space while facing constant criticism and pressure.

California: A large number of ballots to process

California is likely to attract attention because it has several competitive races and a large number of mail ballots. More than 80% of California voters typically vote by mail. Election workers must sort the envelopes, check signatures, remove ballots and scan them. Some counties also receive a large share of their mail ballots on Election Day, creating what California Voter Foundation leader Kim Alexander calls the "pig in the python" problem. The inputs are taken from a report by Protect Democracy.

California allows ballots postmarked by Election Day to arrive within a seven-day grace period. It also gives voters time to fix signature problems.

The state has allocated $40 million this year to help speed up counting. Research in San Joaquin County also found that postcards encouraging voters to return ballots earlier made them more likely to meet the recommended deadline.

There may be fewer closely watched House races this year, however. California had nine competitive districts ahead of the 2022 election. This year, the Cook Political Report considers just three competitive, partly following changes to district boundaries.

Alaska could hold up the Senate picture

Alaska is another state to watch. According to MIT Election Lab data, it was the last state to reach 95% of ballots counted in 2024. Its House race that year was not called by the Associated Press until November 20. This time, Alaska has a closely contested Senate race.

If the results elsewhere are tight, the final outcome in Alaska could determine which party controls the Senate, leaving Americans waiting for weeks.