Heating bills may rise 21% for some US homes, while others could pay less. Who will feel the heat this winter?

Will it be a challenging winter for some parts of the US this season?

US energy agency warns of an expensive winter this year for some, whereas others might pay less. Let's delve into who will pay more and who will pay less!

In an October 7, 2026 analysis, the U.S. Energy Information Administration says that households using electricity and heating oil for warmth will incur high expenses in contrast to those using natural gas and propane.


This may affect about 3% of U.S. households that use heating oil as their main fuel. Northeast could be primarily hit with a massive spike in their spending on heating this season due to their dependency on distillate fuel.

In comparison to 2025, EIA is anticipating a 21% increase in expenditure on heating oil. The blame is pinned on a global price hike in fuel due to low refining activity, which has hit US inventories as well as imports and exports.

US Energy Information Administration forecasts heating oil prices to be up 34% on average, whereas the increase in fuel bills is expected to be 21%.

The math

The EIA’s numbers

⦁Heating oil is forecast to average $5.26 per gallon this winter, up 34%.

⦁The average household using heating oil is forecast to spend $2,115, up 21%.

The EIA expects a milder winter to partly offset the price increase in the Northwest. Over 40% of houses using electricity for heating may see a 4% increase in their bill on average. Whereas houses using natural gas or propane, which is about 9%, are expected to see only a 3% spike.

Why will heating oil be costlier in 2026?

U.S-Iran war has impacted global refining activity, leading to a crisis in distillate fuel production worldwide. Fuel costs have risen globally, resulting in a drop in both US import as well as exports.

US EIA claims that between January and July 2026, the U.S. shipped about 20% more of this fuel overseas than it did in the same months of 2025. A big share of the extra went to Europe.

By the end of 2026, the US expects an 11% fall in distillate fuel inventories, which marks a five-year average low.

FAQs

1. Why will heating oil prices increase this winter in the US?
   Heating oil prices are expected to increase this winter due to low global refining activity resulting from the U.S.-Iran war, which has led to a crisis in distillate fuel production worldwide.
2. How much are households expected to spend on heating oil this winter?
   Households using heating oil are forecast to spend an average of $2,115 this winter, which is a 21% increase compared to the previous year.
3. Which regions in the US will be most affected by heating costs this winter?
   The Northeast region of the US is expected to be primarily impacted, experiencing a significant spike in heating costs this winter.