US midterms 2026: 84% of voters say the economy matters; what else is shaping their choices?

As the United States prepares for the 2026 midterm elections, voters are considering economic issues, political leadership and the country’s future as they decide which candidates to support. Congressional elections are being held as Americans express broad unhappiness with the way the country is going, anxiety about rising prices and declining support for President Donald Trump. A new survey by the Pew Research Center underscores issues of importance to voters and the divisions between Republican and Democratic supporters.

Economy remains the leading issue for voters

The economy is the most significant issue for registered voters heading into the midterm elections. As per the Pew Research Center survey, 84% say the economy is very significant to their voting decisions. The economic challenges are significant for supporters of both major parties. Eighty-eight percent of Democratic voters say the issue is very important, and 82% of Republican voters say the same.

Economic conditions and the cost of living, including gas and energy prices, have increased, according to an Oct. 8 report from Pew Research Center.


Another important question is the future of democracy. The survey discovered that 85% of Democratic voters regard it very important to their vote, compared with 69% of Republican voters.

Democrats lead in national House preferences

Democratic candidates hold an eight-percentage-point advantage over Republican candidates in national preferences for the House of Representatives. The Pew Research Center survey discovered that 44% of registered voters would support a Democratic candidate if the election were held today, while 36% would choose a Republican. Another 5% choose a different candidate, and 15% remain undecided.

Democratic supporters also report stronger engagement with the upcoming election. The survey discovered that 78% of voters backing their district's Democratic candidate say it “really matters” which party wins control of Congress. This is nine percent focused on higher than the share of Republican supporters expressing the same perspective.

The comparisons vary from the period before the 2022 midterm election, when Republican supporters were four percentage points more likely than Democratic supporters to say the result mattered. In the current survey, Democratic supporters are 14 percentage points more likely to have given the election “a lot” of thought and 17 percentage points more likely to say they are “extremely motivated” to vote.

Trump's approval rating reaches a second-term low

President Donald Trump continues to be a significant factor in congressional voting decisions. According to the survey, 63% of voters say he’s a factor in their vote, with 44% saying it’s a vote against him and 19% saying it’s a vote for him.

Trump’s approval rating stands at 30% with 68% disapproving of the way he is doing his job.His approval rating has dropped four points since July, to the lowest point of his second term.

The reduction is also evident among voters who supported him in 2024. Among validated Trump voters from that election, 67% approve of his performance today, when compared with 95% at the start of his term. Meanwhile, 31% disapprove. Some of the sharpest declines have happened in Hispanic and younger voters who backed Trump in 2024.

Trump's impact on voting decisions is more than Joe Biden's was before the 2022 midterms. At that time, 36% of voters viewed their congressional vote as opposition to Biden, while 19% watched it as support for him.

Party loyalty and dissatisfaction shape voter choices

Among validated voters who participated in the 2024 election, 87% of Kamala Harris voters support Democratic House candidates this year, when compared with 77% of Trump voters who support Republican candidates.

Party dissatisfaction results in further differences. Among Trump voters who currently have an unfavourable view of the Republican Party, 49% support Republican candidates, 12% back Democrats, 25% are “not sure” and 14% prefer “another candidate.” By comparison, 73% of Harris voters who hold an unfavourable view of the Democratic Party continue to support Democratic House candidates.

These disaffected voters are generally less engaged than those with favourable views of their parties. Only 36% of Trump voters with a negative perspective of the GOP say the November result really matters, when it is compared with 65% of similarly dissatisfied Harris voters.

Also Read: How to register to vote for the US midterm elections: Check your state's deadline and apply online or by mail

About the survey

The Pew Research Center conducted the survey among 5,062 US adults, that includes 3,917 registered voters, from September 28 to October 4, 2026. Its findings emphasize the central role of economic concerns along with presidential approval, political priorities and voter engagement in shaping the 2026 midterm scenario.