US midterm elections 2026: Why can a candidate leading at midnight lose by morning? Here's what happens

The results for the US midterm elections are counted in stages. In certain situations or cases, a candidate might be seen as leading at midnight, but then loses by morning. So, many people face confusion about what exactly happened and why things changed drastically. The figures that are shown on election night are unofficial. They only show the ballots processed and reported till that point. So, it does not mean that if a candidate leads when polls close, they may necessarily win. The initial results represent only the votes counted and reported at that particular time. It should be noted that mail-in ballots, absentee ballots and provisional ballots also play a very big role in the results and can influence the final outcome of the elections.

What are mail-in ballots and can they change the lead?

States across the United States have different rules when it comes to governing when election officials can process and count mail-on ballots. Some of them allow officials to begin processing these ballots before Election Day. Meanwhile, the other states in the country restrict this work until Election Day or after polls close.

The vote share of a candidate can change when large batches of mail-in ballots are reported later. Some states also accept ballots arriving after Election Day. This only happens if they meet the state's postmark and receipt deadlines.

All about red mirage and blue shift

The red mirage is a situation where Republican candidates are seen to have an early advantage in election-night results.

Meanwhile, the blue shift is when there is subsequent movement in vote totals towards Democratic candidates as additional ballots are counted.

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What about the results in urban areas?

Large urban counties often have significantly more ballots to process than smaller rural counties. Smaller rural jurisdictions may report their results earlier because they have fewer ballots to count. Rural areas have reportedly have historically leaned Republican, while many large urban areas tend to favour Democrats.

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When is the winner officially declared?

The winners are projected by news organisations using reported vote totals and other election data. These projections are not official certifications of election results.

Election officials must complete ballot counting, reconcile totals and conduct the required checks. States then certify election results according to their respective deadlines.