The story behind the Doomsday prediction: How scientists forecast the World would end on November 13, 2026

Throughout history, there are predictions of the end of the world and usually these predictions are a reflection of the greatest fear of the time. An influential scientific paper published in 1960 found a different threat: the possibility that human population growth would accelerate beyond control.

Written by Austrian American physicist Heinz von Foerster and his colleagues, the paper featured that humanity would approach a mathematical limit on Friday, November 13, 2026. However, changes in global birth rates and population growth have challenged the assumptions regarding that forecast.

How a 1960 study predicted a population-driven catastrophe

Published in the journal Science on November 4, 1960, the paper featured a mathematical projection based on historical population details. Its authors analyzed 24 estimates of the world's population spanning around 2,000 years and used those figures to forecast future growth.


The researchers argued that humans differ from other species because of their ability to cooperate and innovate. While populations of other organisms may gradually stop growing because of competition and limited resources, the authors believed that human cooperation could encourage further expansion.

As per their calculations, population growth would accelerate towards infinity, reaching a mathematical limit on November 13, 2026, with a margin of around five years.

The paper cited: “At this date human population will approach infinity if it grows as it has grown in the last two millennia.”

The researchers also featured their concerns in another passage: “Our great-great-grandchildren will not starve. They will be squeezed to death.”

Their argument differed from the traditional fear that population growth would inevitably outpace food production. Instead, the researchers expected that humanity's increasing numbers would gradually lead to overwhelming pressure of another kind.

Why the prediction no longer reflects population trends

More than six decades later, the demographic landscape has changed considerably. Rather than continuing to extend at the pace anticipated by the researchers, global population growth has reduced, while falling birth rates have become a challenge in many countries.

Reportedly, the world's population is almost 8.3 billion. Countries that include South Korea and Japan, along with much of Western Europe, have experienced a shift in demographic challenges, with declining fertility attracting elevating attention.

Recent predictions from the United Nations' World Population Prospects indicates that the global population could reach almost 10.3 billion in 2084 before beginning to decline.

These developments challenge the central assumption behind von Foerster's projection: that the growth patterns observed in the past would remain into the future.

Fears of overpopulation to falling birth rates

Populations have worried about growth long before the von Foerster paper. English economist Thomas Malthus, who lived from 1766 to 1834, helped establish influential arguments about the possibility that population growth could outstrip food supplies and lead to famine.

Von Foerster’s approach placed greater emphasis on the accelerating effects of human cooperation and innovation.His work also appeared in the Cold War when fears about resource scarcity and nuclear proliferation stoked wider fears about the future of civilization.

One of the most influential works associated with modern overpopulation concerns was The Population Bomb, published in 1968 by the biologist Paul R. Ehrlich.

Why doomsday warnings still command attention

Von Foerster’s prediction was based on population math. But today’s global-catastrophe discussions run to a multitude of risks. The rapid development of artificial intelligence, climate change and the possibility of global conflict have all led to renewed concern about humanity's future.

One prominent symbol of this is the Doomsday Clock, established by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists in 1947. Reportedly, the clock stands at 85 seconds to midnight, compared with 89 seconds the previous year. This positions it closer to midnight than at any earlier point in its history.

The clock is intended to communicate challenges regarding threats to humanity rather than predict a literal end-of-the-world date.

These warnings mirror a different set of concerns from those raised in the 1960 population study, but both demonstrate how scientists and researchers use projections to examine possible risks facing humanity.

Also Read:Archaeologists found a copper scroll listing hidden treasure in 64 locations in 1952. 7 decades later, the hoard's existence and whereabouts remain unresolved historical mysteries

What the 2026 prediction tells us about forecasting the future

Von Foerster and his colleagues developed their prediction by extending historical population patterns into the future. Their work was influential in that it provided a striking mathematical scenario at a time of concern about rapid population growth.

However, the population trends did not continue on the same course for all time.

So November 13, 2026, is the date the paper’s mathematical model calls for, not a set date for the end of the world.The researchers’ prediction doesn’t provide evidence of humanity facing a literal doomsday on that day.

More than 60 years after it was published, the paper is a striking illustration of how expectations about the future of humanity can be influenced by the demographic realities of a particular time, and how those expectations may need to change as the world itself changes.

Source: The Independent and Popular Science