NOAA and NWS issue US weather outlooks for October and winter: Which US states are forecast to see the heaviest snow this winter

Maryland could be heading into an unusual winter as a powerful El Niño weather pattern affects conditions across the United States. Forecasters expect warmer temperatures, more moisture and a possible delay in the arrival of winter weather. That does not mean snow is off the table. Kevin Witt of the National Weather Service’s Baltimore-Washington Forecast Office says Maryland could still see significant snowfall, although the timing may be different this year, as per a report by the Balitmore Sun.

“Everything we think of as typical may be delayed through the end of the winter,” Witt told The Baltimore Sun.

How could El Niño change Maryland’s winter

El Niño happens when the surface waters in the equatorial Pacific turn warmer than they normally are. . These natural cycles happen every few years but their effects can vary from one winter to another.

According to the National Weather Service’s Baltimore-Washington office, Maryland has seen very different snowfall patterns during past El Niño winters. Four of the seven strong events recorded since 1950 brought “well above normal snowfall,” while snow was “virtually absent” during the other three.

That history makes it difficult to predict exactly what Maryland will experience this winter.

The current pattern has already contributed to dry conditions in Maryland. Baltimore has also had to take additional steps to protect its water supply. Earlier this month, the city’s Department of Public Works began drawing about 30 million gallons of water a day from the Susquehanna River for the first time since 2002.

The extra supply supplements water from the Prettyboy and Loch Raven reservoirs and serves about 1.8 million people in the region.

Why could snow arrive later than usual

Witt said El Niño could bring warmer, wetter air to Maryland as the season shifts from fall into winter. The jet stream, which guides winter storms might push air northward from the south. This would be different, from its pattern. As a result, Maryland could sit on the warmer edge of storms moving north. That could delay the arrival of the cold, dry air often associated with winter weather.

Witt expects the shift could mean a delay of one or two weeks. He also said fall may be wetter than normal.

The outlook does not rule out snow. Past El Niño winters have brought both heavy snowfall and very little snow to the region, so the pattern alone cannot tell residents how much snow to expect.

What does the outlook mean for the rest of the country

The National Weather Service’s record of past El Niño winters shows why forecasts can differ from one region to another. While Maryland may face a warmer start to winter, its eventual snowfall will depend on how weather patterns develop over the coming months. The broader outlook also comes as El Niño’s effects shift from Southern California and northern Mexico toward the East Coast, according to Witt.