Israel election puts both PM Netanyahu and rival Eisenkot in limbo as Arab parties set to win record seats — what happens next?

With most of the votes counted, Israel's election has failed to produce a clear winner as both major political sides fall short of the 61 seats need to form a government. On Wednesday, the Israeli Central Elections Committee said it had had counted more than five million votes as of 9 pm local time. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu-led bloc was projected to win 53 seats in the 120-member parliament, while his main rival Gadi Eisenkot's alliance was expected to bag 48 seats. Israel's Arab parties could cumulatively secure a record 19 seats, holding the potential to play kingmaker. With both main blocs far from the halfway mark and the Arab parties holding key to government formation, here's what might happen next in Israel.

1st election since October 7 attacks

Wednesday's projections did not include more than half-a-million special ballots which remained to be counted. These include votes cast by soldiers, diplomats, and others voting away from their registered polling stations.


The election, held on Tuesday, was the first since the October 7, 2023 attacks by the Hamas. It was being seen as a referendum on Netanyahu's leadership amid the yearslong war in Gaza. Final election tally could be out as early as Thursday evening, though no clear winner is expected.

Israeli president Isaac Herzog has urged all parties to avoid another election and approach coalition talks "with an open mind." But if the negotiations fail, another election might be conducted.

Scenario 1: Netanyahu's return

Netanyahu's camp is expected to fall 8 seats short of the majority mark of 61. The longtime prime minister may try to pull defectors from the opposition bloc to his side in order to form his next government.

Netanyahu could also try to convince some of the opposition parties to join him, but that would mean he would be forced to negotiate on several key issues, such as the ultra-Orthodox military service. But doing so could cost him the support of far-right figures such as Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich.

Scenario 2: A government with Arab parties

Eisenkot could come to power with the support of the Arab parties. But the main challenge is the rhetoric from within the opposition camp toward those parties. Prior to the vote, Eisenkot had said he would not work with them.

But less than 24 hours after the election, his ally Yair Golan said that managing differences with the Arab parties was the way forward to avoid another Netanyahu term.

Scenario 3: A united front

Netanyahu may not rule out trying to convince his opponents to join forces with him. In Israel, it is also considered within the realm of possibility that Netanyahu may reach out to Eisenkot in an attempt to bring a broad coalition to power and keep the Arab parties in the shadows.