Americans are already paying more for candy. Could El Niño make chocolate even costlier this Christmas, Valentine’s Day, and Easter?

As American households prepare for the holiday season, the beloved treat of Christmas, Valentine's Day, and Easter - chocolates - could become a luxury that many households may struggle to afford.

The chocolate prices could face another shock as El Niño threatens the world's largest cocoa producer. According to reports by AFP, the world’s leading cocoa producer, Ivory Coast, has bad news this season - meteorologists said that El Niño could slash cocoa production by up to a quarter.

Man-made global warming and temperature changes around the equatorial Pacific Ocean could drastically transform the winds and rainfall patterns globally. Experts warn that the El Niño phenomenon could reach extreme levels in December. The fallout, such as droughts and floods, could extend into 2027 and beyond.


Sodexam, Ivory Coast’s weather tracking body, suggests lower rainfall, hotter days, and a drier season in the West African country.

“Water deficit and high temperatures may cut cocoa production by 21% to 25% because of the shrivelling, premature drop of young pods and defoliation of trees”, said Sodexam.

This could result in a colossal loss of income for cocoa growers and a decline in state revenue.

Ivory Coast grows nearly 40% of the world’s cocoa. This crop alone accounts for 15% of the country's GDP and supports around five million out of 33 million people in the country.

The Ivory Coast scientists are working to develop cocoa bean varieties that can stand the test of time and are capable of surviving the unpredictable weather events expected to come, while consuming less water.

Why is candy so expensive in the U.S. these days?

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics says, "Candy, often considered an everyday luxury, has gotten more expensive in recent years. Multiple BLS measures, including the Producer Price Index (PPI), Consumer Price Index (CPI), and Import Price Index (MPI) for confectionery products, show large price increases for confectionery materials and end products."

US Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that Christmas, Valentine’s Day, and Easter celebrations make a combined holiday sales for about two-thirds of yearly confectionery sales.

The BLS report shows that the PPI for cocoa products and corn sweeteners increased 87.6%, and confectionery end products like candy, chewing gum, and nuts increased 13.9 percent between December 2019 and November 2024.

The report highlights the decline in cocoa production from major growers like Ghana and Ivory Coast. It says, “The decrease in global production stemmed primarily from Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana, the world’s largest cocoa producers. Together, they generally account for 50 to 60 percent of total global production. Both countries have experienced poorer weather conditions since 2021. In 2022, Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana had hotter and drier weather, reducing soil moisture and the size of beans. In 2023, Côte d’Ivoire received the highest total rainfall in its cocoa-growing regions in the previous 20 years. The excessive rain led to cacao swollen shoot virus and black pod disease, killing cocoa trees and destroying beans.33 The torrential rain also delayed deliveries to ports. Subject to similar problems, Ghana’s 2023–24 crop yield reached a 23-year low.”