Anthropic’s historic IPO filing: Will Anthropic (ANT) stock crash after IPO? Claude maker reportedly targets potential $2 trillion valuation

Anthropic IPO: will the stock crash after listing? - Anthropic, the company behind Claude, has filed its IPO papers with the US market regulator, the SEC. It plans to list on the Nasdaq under the ticker “ANT”. The number of shares and the price range are not fixed yet.

Reports say trading could begin before the US Thanksgiving holiday on November 26. The question most people are asking is whether the stock will fall after it lists.

Anthropic IPO: Claude maker eyes up to $2 trillion value, but $518 billion in supplier bills raise a big question about a post-listing crash

Anthropic is reportedly aiming to raise up to $100 billion at a value of $1.8 trillion to $2 trillion. If it goes through, it would be the biggest stock market listing ever. Investor meetings could start the week of November 9. Bankers waited until after the US mid-term elections, and the company wanted to share its third-quarter results first.


Anthropic had about $20 billion in cash at the end of 2025. Subtract that from $2 trillion, and investors would be paying about 49.5 times the roughly $40 billion revenue expected in 2026.

At $1.8 trillion, it is about 44.5 times. SpaceX, which listed in June, trades at about 42 times its expected 2026 sales. So Anthropic would be priced higher than SpaceX.

Revenue rose from about $386 million in 2024 to $4.6 billion in 2025, nearly 12 times. In the first half of 2026 it reached $16 billion. Reuters Breakingviews estimates the full year could come in just under $40 billion if sales hold steady.

Anthropic now earns money on each sale. Gross margin went from minus 95% in 2024 to about 40% in 2025. But the company still lost about $8 billion from running the business in 2025.

Its total net loss was about $42 billion.

About $34 billion of that loss is an accounting charge tied to convertible notes sold to companies like Amazon and Alphabet. A convertible note is a loan that can later turn into shares at a set price. As Anthropic’s value rose, these notes became worth more, and the rules require the company to book that as a cost. No cash left the company.

Still, if the notes turn into shares, the share count goes up, and each existing share becomes a smaller slice of the company.

Anthropic has agreed to supplier contracts worth at least $518 billion over ten years. These are with Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, Broadcom, SpaceX and AMD. About 80% of the amount, roughly $414 billion, must be paid even if Anthropic does not use all the capacity. If demand slows, those payments stay.

There is also a dependence on a few customers and partners:

• Two customers made up about a quarter of 2025 revenue, 12% each. The filing does not name them. Bankers believe they are Cursor and GitHub, both AI coding tools.


• About 47% of 2025 sales, around $2.16 billion, came through Amazon and Google’s cloud platforms. Both also build rival AI models. Anthropic paid about $351 million in fees to them.


• Anthropic counts the full amount customers pay through these platforms as revenue. OpenAI argues this inflates the number. On a net basis, 2025 revenue would be about $4.25 billion instead of $4.6 billion. Anthropic says it follows standard accounting rules.

Its own tool, Claude Code, lets developers pay Anthropic directly, which reduces this dependence. But it also competes with Cursor and GitHub, which are big customers.

Will the stock crash after listing?

The case for a fall; the price is high compared with sales, most of the supplier bills are fixed, and a few customers and partners matter a lot.

One outside firm, TickerTrends, estimates that recurring revenue has recently stopped growing. That is not company data.

Anthropic is also a public benefit corporation, so its board must weigh its mission along with profit, and shareholders may not always come first. It faced action from the US government earlier this year, including an order to stop using its models, though government work is under 1% of revenue. The market mood is also mixed.

Oura cancelled its Nasdaq IPO after investors objected to the price, and OpenAI has said it will wait until 2027.

The case for support; fast revenue growth, better margins, a direct line to developers through Claude Code, and strong demand for AI companies in general. When a company is priced this high, even a small change in growth hopes can move the stock sharply in either direction.

Things worth watching before the listing are the price range - a) the third-quarter results, b) any numbers on Claude Code revenue, and c) the share count after the notes convert.