A powerful El Niño is here: What it could mean for your weather, region by region

A powerful El Niño has officially been upgraded to Super El Niño status and is expected to have an impact on the weather across the US this winter. Some areas could see increased rainfall and flooding; others may be warmer with less snow.

NOAA states that ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific have remained high enough to meet the threshold for the designation. The developing pattern could have an impact on the winter of 2026-27, though the impact will be highly variable from place to place.

What makes this El Niño so powerful?

NOAA's Climate Prediction Centre declared it a Super El Niño after sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region stayed 2c above average for three consecutive months.

The August to October average reached that level. El Niño has been building from late spring through summer and into the fall. It's expected to persist through the spring of 2027 before La Niña conditions take over.

The last Super El Niño was 2015–2016. According to FOX Weather, this event could bring a more active storm pattern over the southern US, while much of the north sees warmer-than-average conditions.

How could different areas be impacted?

California and the Southwest

California could be hit by a number of atmospheric rivers, with heavy rainfall and coastal flooding and erosion as a likely outcome. The mountains (Sierra Nevada, etc.) could see quite a bit of snowfall. The Southwest (Arizona and New Mexico in particular) may get more rain and snow, which would be a welcome relief from the drought. Flash flooding is already an issue in parts of Arizona.

The Southeast and Southern Great Plains

The Southeast is likely to become wetter, with the rain potentially ameliorating drought conditions. The mix of moisture and Arctic air could also lead to dangerous ice storms. The Southern Great Plains (Texas included) are likely to get much-needed rain. Northern and western Texas could also see a significant increase in snowfall.

Midwest and Northeast

The Midwest is likely to have a milder, drier winter with less snow and more rain or ice possible. The Northeast also has a greater chance of warmer temperatures, though the potential for heavier precipitation would increase the risk of flooding and powerful winter storms, particularly along the I-95 corridor from NY to Boston.

Alaska, Hawaii and the Northwest

Alaska could see warmer temperatures and more rain (rather than snow) in some areas. Hawaii and the other Pacific islands could have a drier winter, more intense storms and an increased risk of wildfire. The Pacific Northwest could get significantly less mountain snow, which would have implications for future water supplies and for the potential for wildfires.

Why are the forecasters keeping such a close eye on it?

Grist's regional reporting makes it clear just how unpredictable the effects can be. A strong El Niño doesn't necessarily mean the same thing in every location, and individual cold snaps can still bring snow and the like.

The event is going to have a massive effect on the weather, though we can't possibly work out what the exact impact will be in every single location. The effect will be dependent on how the rest of the atmosphere develops over the coming months. The information is taken from Grist and Fox Weather.