SpaceX earnings to be released tomorrow, October 20: 10 points to know

SpaceX earnings on October 20: SpaceX will release third-quarter results on Tuesday, Oct. 20, after the U.S. market closes. The earnings call starts at 4:30 p.m. ET. It’s the company’s second full quarterly report since going public, and the latest quote showed SPCX at $149.28, up 2.23%.

SpaceX earnings on October 20: Here are 10 things to watch

Companies usually announce earnings dates weeks ahead. SpaceX didn’t, and that caught analysts off guard.

Evercore ISI analyst Kutgun Maral listed a few possible reasons. SpaceX may want updated financials on record before new financing, or it may want to share time-sensitive news before others do. It could also be plain scheduling. He said it’s hard to know.


Lock-ups stop early shareholders from selling for a set period after a listing. Several are about to end.

About 1.30 billion shares come free two days after earnings. Another 329 million follow on Oct. 24. A further 857 million shares from the 180-day group are released after that.

Together that’s roughly 2.49 billion shares. Whether holders will sell any of them isn’t known.

Proposed $40 billion Nvidia financing deal

Reuters reported that SpaceX is seeking $40 billion to buy advanced Nvidia AI chips. About $10 billion would be bank loans and $30 billion investment-grade debt. Apollo is expected to help lead it, and PIMCO is among the possible participants.

SpaceX’s earlier $20 billion bridge loan has been repaid through long-term notes. That moves the question away from 2027 maturities. Investors now care more about total debt, the cost of new borrowing, and how much capital the company needs over the next few years.

What the AI business has to prove

The market expects third-quarter revenue of $12.89 billion to $13.0 billion. That’s about 65% above the second quarter’s $7.8 billion.

Most of the jump is expected from AI computing. Analysts see about $6.4 billion there, up roughly 150% from $2.56 billion. It would be the first time AI beats Starlink as the largest revenue source. The growth comes mainly from hosting contracts with Anthropic, Google and others moving into the execution phase.

Revenue isn’t profit. The AI division lost about $1.5 billion last quarter. Management says capacity will pass 2 gigawatts by year-end and reach 5 to 10 gigawatts by the end of 2027. But installed capacity isn’t the same as capacity customers are paying for. Utilization, revenue per watt and contract terms will show the difference.

Credit stress at cloud providers like CoreWeave has shown that strong demand doesn’t guarantee a profitable operator. SpaceX has Starlink, launch services and a large cash pile, which gives it more room than most.

Why spending may matter more than earnings per share

Analysts expect adjusted earnings of $0.14 to $0.17 per share. If that holds, it would be the first positive adjusted EPS since the listing. Adjusted EBITDA is forecast near $6.6 billion. EBITDA leaves out interest, taxes and depreciation, so it doesn’t capture the wear on chips and data centers.

Spending is the bigger worry. Capital expenditure was $18.37 billion last quarter. Bloomberg’s consensus for this one is $19.61 billion, with free cash flow of negative $11.6 billion. That implies about $8 billion coming in from operations.

Last quarter, heavy spending outweighed a revenue beat, and the stock fell after the report. If management raises spending plans again without a clearer path to better margins, that could repeat.

Starlink business

Starlink connectivity revenue is expected at $4.8 billion to $4.9 billion. Consumer subscribers could reach 14.3 million. Analysts will look at subscriber growth, revenue per user, and the share from business and government customers.

SpaceX also bought 800 MHz low-band spectrum for Starlink Mobile. The plan is to link direct-to-cell satellite service with ground networks. Starship’s 14th test flight reached orbit for the first time and deployed 26 Starlink V3 satellites. That matters more for long-term launch costs than for this quarter’s revenue.

Tesla reports the next day

Tesla follows on Wednesday, Oct. 21. SpaceX’s numbers will be known before Tesla opens its books, so they may shape the mood going in.

Talk of a Tesla–SpaceX merger could come up on the call. Neither company has announced a deal, so for now it’s speculation.