Social Security's 3.5% COLA explained: Why seniors say higher heating bills and prescription costs could wipe out their raise

2027 Social Security COLA: The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) forecasts a 3.5% cost-of-living adjustment for 2027. That’s up from 2.8% this year. The Social Security Administration will announce the official number on October 14, after September inflation data comes out.

TSCL estimates the average monthly benefit would go from $1,940.08 to $2,007.98. That’s a gain of $67.90. Someone getting $2,000 a month would see $70 more.

Why a bigger check doesn’t mean more spending money

A COLA is meant to match rising prices, not to add to a retiree’s budget. If costs climb as fast as the benefit does, nothing is left over.


TSCL’s 2026 Senior Survey shows why this matters. About 89% of respondents said this year’s COLA was too low. And 44% said Social Security is their only income, so they have no other money to cover a gap.

Heating oil is the biggest unknown this winter

The National Energy Assistance Directors Association expects heating with oil to cost 50% more than last winter. That’s a steep jump, but it won’t hit everyone equally. A retiree on electric or gas heat faces a different bill than one filling an oil tank.

Gas and diesel prices are a second pressure point. Ongoing conflict in the Middle East is expected to keep them high, though that could change. Retirees who drive often will feel it first.

Medicare Part B takes a small slice

Part B premiums are projected to rise 3.25% in 2027, to $209.50 a month. That’s slightly below the COLA. By my math, the increase is roughly $6.60 a month, which would leave about $61 of the average raise.

Part B is only one piece of health spending, though. Copays, dental, vision and hearing costs sit outside that premium.

Part D could erase more of it

KFF reports that about 4 million Part D enrollees without low-income subsidies paid no monthly premium in 2026. Some of those plans may start charging next year.

Social Security analyst Mary Johnson says her own plan, which had no premium, will cost more than $19 a month in 2027. For a retiree facing both that and the Part B increase, roughly $25 of the $67.90 would be gone before heating or fuel are counted.

The 3.5% figure is a forecast. September’s inflation data will set the real COLA. Even if it lands at 3.5%, the raise will be measured against bills that are already rising faster in some categories than the average.