Mopup from Tax amnesty scheme pegged at Rs 1,000 crore

MUMBAI: Tax evaders and avoiders may not bite the bait of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s latest amnesty scheme and officials and consultants estimate the mopup to be only about Rs 1,000 crore, against Rs 33,339 crore declared way back in 1997.

While there is no official figure released by the government, some tax officers in the know estimated only about Rs 1,000 crore are likely to be declared. The current scheme caters only to domestic black money and is set to attract a tax rate of 45%.

Tax amnesty schemes tend to be fallow ground except when announced at long intervals. India has had 12 amnesty schemes since 1951, four of them since the economy was opened up in 1991.

The 2015 scheme by the government had about 638 declarants and revenue of around Rs 3,770 crore. While the 1997 one was had a revenue of about Rs 9,584 crore from about 4,76,133 declarants.

ET spoke to income-tax officers close to the development and experts and consultants who may be advising their clients on declare black money. It is understood that the estimated figure is also communicated by the I-T department to the government.

“We estimate that cash and other assets worth around Rs 1,000 crore could be declared under the scheme. Yet, the PM directly issuing a warning could have some effect, as we have seen in the past that most people declare the money in last week of deadline,” a person in the know said.

An I-T officer said, “Rs 1,000 crore is what we currently expect to be collected by November (when the scheme ends). The information on how much is declared currently is not collated.”

“I have told my clients to not make any declarations, as this could lead to a lot of problems later. What is the probability of each and every one who holds black money to come under the incometax net?” asked a New Delhi-based tax consultant. In the past few months, many individuals with black money have rushed to their tax consultants for advice.