Silver rate has fallen 50% from its record-high January rate; should you buy now or wait?

In less than nine months, silver prices on the Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX) fell by more than 50%, sliding from a high of Rs 3,84,632/kg on January 29 to Rs 1,90,847 on October 27.

Someone who invested Rs 5 lakh in silver at its peak is now seeing their investments slip below Rs 2.5 lakh. But for someone who had been waiting for a dip, is it the right time to invest in silver?

Or should they wait for some more time to see silver prices dip further? Experts weigh in on what existing and new investors should do and where they should invest.


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Highest and lowest MCX spot silver prices since January 2026)

Month	Highest rate (₹/kg)	Date of highest rate	Lowest rate (₹/kg)	Date of lowest rate
Jan-26	₹ 3,84,632	29-Jan-26	₹ 2,27,866	01-Jan-26
Feb-26	₹ 2,82,346	04-Feb-26	₹ 2,32,634	02-Feb-26
Mar-26	₹ 2,90,308	02-Mar-26	₹ 2,04,383	23-Mar-26
Apr-26	₹ 2,51,705	16-Apr-26	₹ 2,27,633	02-Apr-26
May-26	₹ 2,87,976	14-May-26	₹ 2,39,833	01-May-26
Jun-26	₹ 2,66,694	02-Jun-26	₹ 2,15,552	25-Jun-26
Jul-26	₹ 2,33,701	03-Jul-26	₹ 2,15,786	17-Jul-26
Aug-26	₹ 2,46,114	21-Aug-26	₹ 2,17,883	03-Aug-26
Sep-26	₹ 2,38,660	10-Sep-26	₹ 2,21,018	29-Sep-26
Oct-2026*	₹ 2,23,815	05-Oct-26	₹ 1,90,717	27-Oct-26

Why did silver price fall by 50% in around nine months?

Prithviraj Kothari, President of India Bullion and Jewellers Association, found three key reasons behind the steep fall: the US Fed rate hike, high US bond yields, the estimated fall in silver’s industrial use, and India’s import restrictions and 15% duty.

“The US Fed Reserve’s September rate hike and yields near 5% made silver, which pays no interest, less attractive. Industry accounts for about 58% of silver demand, and that demand is expected to fall nearly 3% this year. In India, import restrictions and the 15% duty have added more pressure,” says Kothari.

Vedika Narvekar, Research Analyst-Commodities & Currencies, Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers, also sees factors such as prolonged geopolitical tensions, elevated crude oil prices, and a strong dollar as reasons behind the fall in silver prices.

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Can silver prices recover to peak levels?

Suvankar Sen, MD and CEO, Senco Gold Ltd, says the silver price’s future trajectory will be dictated by its industrial demand—specially from sectors like solar and electronics—alongside retail investment.

Kothari doesn’t see silver prices returning to the peak levels in the next 12-18 months. Kothari feels silver’s January peak came from speculative buying, not from supply and demand.

However, Kothari sees a silver lining for reasons such as the Silver Institute expecting a supply shortfall of 46.3 million ounces in 2026, the sixth year in a row, and demand from electric vehicles and artificial intelligence (AI) data centres growing.

Narvekar sets a more ‘realistic’ silver price target of Rs 2,48,800 per kg for the next 12 months.

“A recovery to that point needs the US Fed’s rate-hike cycle to end and speculative selling to run out,” says Narvekar.

Is it the right time to buy silver?

Experts believe that silver prices may not return to peak levels in the near term, but they have potential to rise in the next 12 to 18 months; should investors see it as a buying opportunity?

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Sen sees the silver price correction as a welcome window for customers eyeing silver jewellery, coins, and gifting pieces.

“If you are buying silver purely from an investment lens, a staggered accumulation strategy is the safest bet to average out your costs,” says Sen.

However, Kothari suggests buying silver only if the investor can handle big price swings and plans to hold it for three to five years.

Kothari feels the steep fall has taken out most of the speculative excess from the silver price.

“The gold-silver ratio is now about 74, compared with about 46 at the January peak, so silver is much cheaper relative to gold than it was then. But silver moves about twice as much as gold in either direction, so trying to buy at the exact bottom is risky,” says Kothari.

Kothari also suggests investing through monthly systematic investment plans (SIPs) over six to nine months.

“Buy more if prices fall toward Rs 1,80,000 per kg,” recommends Kothari.

What should investors do who bought silver at peak prices?

Ideally, one should buy an asset when it is cheap and sell when its price is high. But in reality, the opposite happens. Most investors invest in assets whose price is rising, while they start panic selling when their price falls.

The silver price rally was no different. A number of investors bought silver in different forms when prices were sky-high. Such investors have seen their silver investments’ value decline. What should such investors do now?

Narvekar says existing investors should avoid panic selling, but they should also avoid aggressive averaging at lower levels.

Narvekar opines that those with a long-term investment horizon can continue holding, as structural demand from solar energy, electrification, and electronics remains supportive.

Kothari and Sen also suggest avoiding panic selling. Kothari suggests investors who bought silver at peak prices add small amounts over the next few months to lower their average cost.

However, amid such suggestions, many investors may think about which form of silver is best to invest in. Some investors prefer jewellery, coins or bars, while others avoid accumulating the precious metal in its physical form.

Such investors may prefer investing in silver’s electronic form, such as an exchange-traded fund (ETF) or fund of funds (FoF). Some weigh taxation on different forms of silver before investing. But which form can be the best to invest in?

Narvekar recommends buying silver ETFs as more convenient than physical silver because they avoid storage, purity and resale concerns.

“Coins and bars suit those who want physical ownership, but premiums, GST, and resale deductions can reduce returns,” says Narvekar.

Kothari too recommends investing in silver ETFs. He says they are backed by 99.9% pure physical silver, carry no GST, and cost less than 1% a year.

“Gains on units held for more than 12 months are taxed at 12.5%, and gains within 12 months at your income-tax slab rate. Silver fund-of-funds suit SIP investors, but they need to be held for 24 months to count as long-term,” says Kothari.

Sen says physical silver—like coins and bars—gives investors tangible ownership, which many buyers prefer for cultural or gifting reasons.