Not 9% but Nifty has crashed by 24% notionally in 18 months: Is this one of the biggest falls the best time to buy stocks or do averaging?

Amid the oil and gas crisis and other supply chain disruptions triggered by conflicts involving the US, Israel, and Iran, the National Stock Exchange’s Nifty 50 index fell more than 1%, or 395 points, on Wednesday (March 11, 2026) to close at 23,866. From its all-time peak of 26,332 on January 2, 2026, the index has now declined 9.37%. However, this reflects only the decrease in value. Many investors tend to forget the concept of “time correction; the index has sort of stagnated, delivering almost no growth over the past 18 months.

If we consider the time crash/correction and measure it with Nifty 50’s long-term performance, the fall will appear steeper. In the past 20 years, the Nifty 50 has delivered a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.3%. The rate has accelerated in more recent periods, rising 15.6% in the last 10 years and 17.9% in the last five years.

As of March 11, 2026, the Nifty 50 has witnessed a value crash of 8.9% from its peak of 26,178.95 on September 27, 2024. Moreover, if we consider the lowest long-term annual growth of 13.3% over a period of 20 years, then this time crash comes out to be approximately 20% in 18 months, roughly. So, the total decline, when both value crash and time crash are taken together, shows that Nifty 50 has fallen by a greater extent notionally from its previous peak in September 2024, which is not far from the approximately 40% historical fall it witnessed in 2020 during the Covid-19 pandemic.


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Notionally, had the Nifty 50 grown by 13.3% CAGR in this intervening period, it could have grown from 26,178.95 in September 2024 to 31,414.75 as of March 11, 2026. However, it stood at 23,866, which is notionally a total fall of 24.17%.

Major Nifty falls in 26 years

Crisis / Event	Peak (approx)	Bottom (approx)	Nifty Fall	Period
Dot-com bubble crash	1,818 (Feb 2000)	850 (Sep 2001)	−53%	2000–2001
Global Financial Crisis (Lehman Brothers collapse)	6,357 (Jan 2008)	2,524 (Oct 2008)	−60%	2008
COVID-19 crash	12,430 (Jan 2020)	7,610 (23 Mar 2020)	−39%	2020
COVID second wave correction (2021)	18,600 (Oct 2021)	15,183 (Dec 2021)	−18%	2021

While a steep fall can be disheartening for many investors, it can also bring some opportunities for many to invest in equities.

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Big recoveries: Edelweiss’ data showing leanest 18-month Nifty 50 patches since year 2001

No.	Start Date	End Date	18M Return	Next 12M Return	Next 36M Absolute Return
1	31-Jul-01	31-Dec-02	1.92%	72%	159%
2	31-Aug-01	31-Jan-03	-1.13%	74%	188%
3	31-Oct-01	31-Mar-03	0.65%	81%	248%
4	31-Jan-07	30-Jun-08	-1.03%	6%	40%
5	31-Mar-08	31-Aug-09	-1.53%	16%	13%
6	30-Apr-08	30-Sep-09	-1.59%	19%	12%
7	28-Feb-11	31-Jul-12	-1.95%	10%	63%
8	30-Apr-11	30-Sep-12	-0.80%	1%	39%
9	31-May-11	31-Oct-12	1.07%	12%	44%
10	31-Dec-14	31-May-16	-1.48%	18%	46%
11	30-Jun-15	30-Nov-16	-1.72%	24%	47%
12	30-Sep-21	28-Feb-23	-1.78%	27%	48%
13	31-Oct-21	31-Mar-23	-1.76%	29%	47%

If your investment portfolio is in red, how do you want to utilise the market fall as an opportunity or opportunity lost. Here's what experts suggest-

Nifty 50 fall- a healthy correction or can it fall further?

Manish Kothari, co-founder and CEO, ZFunds, says the current fall is a stress-driven correction, not a crash.

“Nifty is down but economic fundamentals look healthy now. However, we will have to watch out for the crude oil prices and recovery, and correction might take some time.

Ankit Patel, co-founder & partner at – Arunasset Investment Services, also sees it as a high-stake correction rather than a structural bear phase. However, Patel says the health of the Nifty 50 index depends entirely on the war’s duration.

“If the conflict resolves within 3-4 weeks, we’re looking at a temporary shock that markets can digest, given India's macro stability,” Patel predicts.

Juzer Gabajiwala, director, Ventura, considers the current scenario as a cascading and collateral damage across the globe, but he thinks the trajectory ahead will largely depend on geopolitical developments and crude oil prices.

Ever since Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz, oil supplies in most parts of the world have been disrupted. India, which imports large portions of its oil and gas supplies from abroad, is also seeing market aftershocks because of this disturbance.

Ravi Singh – chief research officer (Advisory & Research) – Master Capital Services Limited, considers the current phase a period of consolidation rather than the start of a long downturn ‘unless global conditions deteriorate significantly’.

Nifty 50 long-term CAGR returns

Investment period	CAGR return
20 years	13.30%
15 years	14.00%
10 years	15.60%
5 years	17.90%

Data source: Niftyindices.com

For investors sitting with cash, is it the right time to invest?

Many retail investors with cash are in a dilemma whether they should invest in a falling market or it will decline further. They expect a recovery from the entry point, but they don’t want to see their amount deplete. For such investors, what can be the right strategy?

Patel strongly advises that the risk isn't in entering the market now, but it is missing the inevitable snapback.

“With the Nifty price-to-earning ratio now sitting around 21x—right at its 10-year mean—we are finally back in the 'fair value' zone. We’ve moved from paying for 'hope' to paying for performance,” says Patel.

Kothari too says the current market fall stress-driven (global noise) not structural (broken fundamentals), and the risk-reward clearly favours deployment.

“It is a good time to initially deploy 25-30% for those with cash reserves, stay allocation-aware, and tilt toward quality large caps, value funds and flexi cap funds,” Kothari says revealing his strategy for investors.

However, Gabajiwala advises such investors to invest in a staggered manner and expect the return in the long term.

“If opting for a one-time investment, investors need to stagger their lump sum investment over the next 6-12 months to manage market volatility. Equity investments should ideally be made for at least five years or more,” opines Gabajiwala.

SIP or lump sum? Which form of investment should investors follow?

Even though the Nifty 50 is way below its September 2024 mark. Many mid cap and small cap investors haven’t made any gains during that period, should investors invest their money in one go, or should they follow the route of evergreen form of SIP.

Expert strategies for SIP and lump sum investments

Manish Kothari, co-founder and CEO, ZFunds

SIP/STP is ideal in volatile markets as it removes the need to time the market and benefits from rupee-cost averaging. Existing SIPs should not be stopped; investors can consider increasing SIPs by 20–30%. Those with strong conviction and a 5+ year horizon may invest 60–70% as lump sum and deploy the remaining amount through STP.

Juzer Gabajiwala, director, Ventura



Staggered investing through SIPs or STPs is prudent in volatile markets as it spreads investments over time and reduces the risk of entering at unfavourable levels. Lump-sum investors should consider deploying funds systematically over 6–12 months to average NAV and manage short-term market uncertainty.

Ankit Patel, co-founder & partner at – Arunasset Investment Services



Recommends a tactical stagger over the next three weeks to capture volatility without trying to time the market bottom. Historical crises such as GFC and COVID-19 show that policy actions or de-escalation can trigger sharp recoveries, so investors should avoid staying on the sidelines.

Dr. Ravi Singh, chief research officer (Advisory & Research)



Trying to invest all your money at one specific level may not be the best strategy. A more sensible approach would be staggered investing. Instead of deploying the entire amount at once, investors can gradually add money to the market over the next few weeks or months.

Large vs Mid vs Small cap- which is the best investment?

Large caps are always safer bets than mid and small if the market is down, but if it recovers, returns of mid caps and small caps can beat the returns of large caps. As experts suggest, the market has the potential to recover, which can be the best cap, or if investors go for a combination, which can be the ideal mix.

Large vs mid vs small caps: Investor advise



Manish Kothari, co-founder and CEO, ZFunds

Mid and small caps have corrected sharply (around 25%) and are more volatile when global markets are nervous, making large-cap companies relatively more stable. Investors can consider flexi cap or large & value-based mutual funds. However, patient investors with a 5–7-year horizon and higher risk appetite may find quality mid-cap stocks attractive at current valuations.

Juzer Gabajiwala, director, Ventura



Large caps are traditionally considered stable, but recent corrections have made mid- and small-cap valuations more attractive. Instead of focusing on a single segment, investors may benefit from diversified strategies such as multicap or flexicap funds that allocate across market capitalisations.

Ankit Patel, co-founder & partner at – Arunasset Investment Services



Since the September 2024 peak, the Nifty 100 has corrected about 7% while the Nifty Smallcap 250 has fallen around 17%, removing excess froth. While large-cap earnings may grow 12–14% in FY27, mid and small-cap earnings are expected to grow around 25%, offering higher growth potential at roughly a 20% valuation discount.

Which sectors look attractive?

Looking at the performance of top sectoral indices in the three months, Nifty Metal, BSE Metal, Nifty CPSE and Nifty Defence have been some of the best performers, while Nifty IT, BSE Select Business Group and BSE Internet Economy have struggled. While sectors such as Nifty Metal and Nifty Defence gained because of global uncertainty and the Iran-Israel conflict, Nifty IT suffered due artificial intelligence disrupting traditional outsourcing models. Amid such a scenario, which are sectors investors can bet on?

Performance of top sectoral indices in 3 months

Index / Sector	Change (%)
Nifty Metal	16.37%
BSE Metal	15.90%
Nifty CPSE	14.04%
Nifty India Defence	9.77%
Nifty200 Value 30	9.38%
Nifty 500 Value 50	8.79%
BSE Select Business	-21.82%
Nifty IT	-21.54%
BSE IT Sector	-21.23%
Nifty India Digital	-20.27%

Source: Trendlyne

Kothari picks pharma, consumption, capital goods and value themes as they look attractive due to rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of India, low FII positioning and potential earnings recovery.

Gabajiwala, however, suggests avoiding concentrated sectoral/thematic funds in current conditions and recommends investing in diversified options such as multi cap, flexi cap funds and multi asset allocation funds.

Patel asks to bet on defence, power and capital goods companies linked to India’s capex cycle.

Singh feels energy, defence and capital goods are gaining attention due to geopolitical factors and domestic investment trends, while defensive sectors like pharmaceuticals and FMCG may provide stability during volatility.