Dhanteras gold buying: Down over 18% from its peak, can gold price recover to January peaks in new year?

The 999 gold price on the India Bullion and Jewellers Association (IBJA) hit a peak of Rs 1,76,121 per 10 gram on January 30, 2026. Since then, the yellow metal price has declined by 18.16% to Rs 1,44,129 as on November 5.

Even though the gold rate is considerably down since its January peak, people invest in gold on Dhanteras with a belief that a purchase on such an auspicious occasion will bring prosperity to their lives.

As the country is set to celebrate Dhanteras on November 6, will the wish of these gold buyers be fulfilled? Can they see gold prices returning to their peaks in the new year?


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Gold return from Dhanteras to Dhanteras

Gold prices are volatile, and returns from gold investments can vary in different cycles of Dhanteras.

For example, if we look at the 999-purity gold price of the India Bullion and Jewellers Association (IBJA), the yellow metal has given a return of approximately 11.09% from the previous Dhanteras till November 5.

This is in contrast to the return between Dhanteras of 2024 and 2025, when the yellow metal’s price rose by nearly 65%.

However, if we look at the 5- and 10-year returns on IBJA, gold has given a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 24.61% and 16.96%, respectively.

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Considering its record of delivering returns and prevailing price-influencing factors, can investors expect a good return from their gold investments till Dhanteras 2027?

Dhanteras day gold buying - Historical returns since Dhanteras 1996

Year of purchase	Dhanteras Day	999 gold rate (10g)	Holding period	Absolute return	CAGR	Value of Rs 10,000 invested in 1996
2026	5 Nov 2026 (Thursday)	₹ 1,44,129	-	-	-	₹ 2,82,606
2025	18 Oct 2025 (Saturday)	₹ 1,29,584	1 year	11.22%	11.22%	₹ 2,54,086
2024	29 Oct 2024 (Tuesday)	₹ 78,745	2 years	83.03%	35.29%	₹ 1,54,402
2023	10 Nov 2023 (Friday)	₹ 60,240	3 years	139.26%	33.75%	₹ 1,18,118
2022	22 Oct 2022 (Saturday)	₹ 50,062	4 years	187.90%	30.26%	₹ 98,161
2021	2 Nov 2021 (Tuesday)	₹ 47,904	5 years	200.87%	24.65%	₹ 93,929
2016	27 Oct 2016 (Thursday)	₹ 30,060	10 years	379.47%	16.97%	₹ 58,941
2011	24 Oct 2011 (Monday)	₹ 26,785	15 years	438.10%	11.87%	₹ 52,520
2006	19 Oct 2006 (Thursday)	₹ 8,762	20 years	1544.93%	15.03%	₹ 17,180
2001	12 Nov 2001 (Monday)	₹ 4,640	25 years	3006.23%	14.73%	₹ 9,098
1996	8 Nov 1996 (Friday)	₹ 5,100	30 years	2726.06%	11.78%	₹ 10,000

Returns as on Nov 5, 2026, for gold (999 purity) price at Rs per 10 g, Gold price source: IBJA

Why did gold prices give extraordinary returns in the last one year?

Gold didn’t give extraordinary returns from the previous Dhanteras till now. But gold prices’ journey in the last year saw many ups and downs. It hit an all-time high of over Rs 1.75 lakh/10g on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) in January this year. Many people rallied to invest in gold, only to see their investments taking a dip at current levels.

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Suvankar Sen, MD and CEO, Senco Gold Ltd., told ET Wealth Online that the sharp rally in gold prices in the early part of 2026 was driven by heightened geopolitical uncertainty, expectations around interest rate movements, central bank purchases and gold's continued appeal as a safe-haven asset.

But then why did the gold price rally sustain?

Prithviraj Kothari, President of India Bullion and Jewellers Association Ltd. and Managing Director at RiddiSiddhi Bullions Ltd., told ET Wealth Online that the immediate trigger for the gold price crash was the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the US Fed chair on January 30, 2026. The deeper damage came later, as hopes of Fed rate cuts gave way to hikes, explains Kothari.

Vedika Narvekar, Research Analyst- Commodities & Currencies, Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers, says gold prices dipped mainly because of high crude prices above $100, the Fed increasing rates, higher US bond yields and a strong US dollar.

Many of these factors may persist in the near future. Inflation in the US is high, increasing from 3.4% in August to 3.7% in September, so the future Fed rate hike can’t be ruled out. Crude oil prices have eased after Democrats’ win in the midterm US election this week, but the Iran-US war tensions haven’t eased. US bond yields have also eased slightly after the election results. But how long these factors will continue is yet to be seen.

Amid such a scenario, what should gold investors do now? Should they invest with the hope of getting a higher return till the next Dhanteras, or should they follow a measured approach?

Kothari’s base case for Dhanteras 2027 gold price is Rs 1,65,000–1,70,000/10g on the MCX, roughly $4,800–5,000/oz with the rupee at 95–96 per dollar.

Kothari presents two gold rates-

• Bull case (Rs 1,80,000–Rs 1,85,000): the Fed signals cuts by late 2027, or geopolitical stress returns.
• Bear case (Rs 1,25,000–Rs 1,30,000): rates keep rising, or India rolls back the duty hike.

Kothari says the floor for high gold prices in the next year is fairly firm with central bank gold buying jumping to 321 trillion in Q3, led by China and Poland, and global ETF holdings reaching a record 4,256t.

But Kothari advises keeping an eye on oil prices linked to the Iran conflict, the US fiscal policy after the midterms, and the rupee value.

Narvekar predicts a wide range of Rs 1,25,000 to Rs 1,75,000 over the next 12 months, saying that her direction is set by three things: US bond yields, the US dollar and the Fed’s rate decision.

Sen predicts gold prices are expected to move in a range of 5-7% down to 12-15% up.

Aarav Bafna, director, Akoirah by Augmont, advises that investors should not extrapolate the exceptional gains of the previous rally into their return expectations for the coming year.

Rather, Bafna suggests a measured outlook that accounts for both further upside and potential corrections.

“For India, the rupee-dollar exchange rate, import policy and domestic demand will remain additional determinants,” says Bafna.

What should be the strategy to buy gold for the next year?

Kothari advises splitting fresh money into 6–12 monthly tranches or running an ETF systematic investment plan (SIP).

“Add a little extra when prices dip to Rs 1,35,000–Rs 1,38,000. Keep gold at 15–20% of your portfolio and rebalance once a year. Avoid leveraged MCX positions unless you trade professionally,” Kothari says, explaining his strategy.

Bafna advises that during periods of volatility, it is best to avoid timing the market or making decisions based on short-term price movements.

“A staggered investment approach distributes purchases across different price levels and reduces dependence on entering at a particular price point,” says Bafna.

While people invest in gold on Dhanteras with the hope of getting high returns, as experts suggest, it is always good to have a measured approach. Rather than investing large sums at once, one can have staggered investments in gold and wait for the right price levels to invest more money.