Can satellites bump into each other? New 'CRASH Clock' study reveals a potential threat in space

A new study has raised concerns about the growing risk of satellite collisions in Earth’s orbit, introducing the concept of a 'CRASH Clock' to track how quickly such incidents could escalate. As the number of satellites continues to surge, especially with mega-constellations launched by companies like SpaceX, space is becoming increasingly crowded. Researchers warn that under certain conditions, collisions could begin within days, potentially triggering a chain reaction of debris. This scenario, often linked to the Kessler Syndrome, could disrupt communications, navigation, and global connectivity systems.

New research led by Sarah Thiele, along with Skye Heiland, Aaron Boley, Samantha Lawler, at Princeton University highlights an unexpected risk in orbit: solar storms. These powerful space weather events can disrupt communication links between satellites and their ground controllers. If that connection is lost during a geomagnetic storm, operators may be unable to guide satellites away from danger. The study suggests that in such a scenario, it could take as little as 2.8 days for a collision to occur. The scale of the challenge is already evident.

According to data cited by SciTech Daily from SpaceX, its Starlink system carried out more than 144,000 collision-avoidance maneuvers between December 2024 and May 2025. That works out to roughly one course correction every 1.8 minutes, underscoring how crowded and fragile Earth’s orbit has become.


According to Live Science, as of May 2025, more than 11,700 satellites were actively orbiting Earth, with the vast majority concentrated in Low Earth Orbit - the zone extending up to about 1,200 miles (2,000 km) above the planet. This marks a dramatic surge of roughly 485% compared to the end of 2018, when only around 2,000 satellites occupied the same region, before major deployments like Starlink began in 2019.

The rapid expansion highlights just how quickly space is becoming crowded. With more launches planned by multiple companies and nations, experts believe the number of satellites will continue to climb sharply in the coming years, signaling that the current congestion is likely just the start of a much larger trend.

What is 'CRASH Clock'?

Thiele’s study introduces the concept of Collision Realization and Significant Harm, or 'CRASH', a measure designed to estimate how quickly a serious satellite collision could happen if ground teams lose the ability to control spacecraft. In such a scenario - where communication is cut and course corrections stop - the timeline for a major incident could shrink dramatically. According to the findings, that window is now under 72 hours, a sharp drop from roughly 164 days just a few years ago, reported PetaPixel. The congestion in orbit is already intense.

According to PetaPixel, the data shows that a Starlink satellite comes within one kilometer of another object about every 47 seconds. To prevent accidents, operators continuously monitor and adjust satellite paths from Earth. But with traffic this dense, even a small disruption could leave little margin for error, raising the risk of cascading collisions in space.